Laptop buyers have enjoyed a rare sweet spot: powerful machines at historically low prices, aggressive discounts, and more performance per dollar than at almost any point in the past decade. That window is starting to close as component shortages, surging demand for artificial intelligence hardware, and a looming operating system deadline all converge on the same product category. If current signals hold, the bargain era could give way to a far more expensive 2026 for anyone who needs a new notebook.
I see a clear pattern emerging across chipmakers, memory suppliers, and the biggest PC brands, and it points in one direction: the cost of building a capable laptop is rising faster than manufacturers can quietly absorb. The result is likely to be higher sticker prices, weaker specs at the same price points, or both, with early moves already visible in the way companies like Dell, Lenovo, and HP are reshaping their lineups.
How laptops got so cheap in the first place
The current crop of affordable laptops did not appear by accident, it was the product of a multi‑year glut of components, cautious consumer spending, and intense competition among manufacturers. After the pandemic buying spree, demand for PCs slumped, leaving warehouses full of unsold machines and suppliers sitting on excess DRAM and SSD inventory. To clear that backlog, brands leaned on discounts and promotions, while component makers cut prices to keep factories running, which is how midrange buyers ended up with 16 GB of memory and fast storage in machines that used to ship with half that capacity.
At the same time, the industry has been racing to move users off older systems, particularly those still running Microsoft Windows 10. As support for that operating system winds down, millions of devices are being pushed toward retirement, and that has already started to reshape pricing dynamics. One analysis notes that The Windows 10 Deadline Is Driving Demand, with Microsoft Windows support policies nudging households and businesses to replace aging hardware sooner than they might have planned.
The RAM crunch that could flip the script
That comfortable backdrop is now colliding with a very different reality in the memory market, where prices for DRAM are rising sharply after a prolonged slump. I am already seeing the effects in the way laptop makers talk about their upcoming lineups, because memory is not a luxury add‑on, it is a core ingredient in every modern PC. When the cost of each gigabyte jumps, manufacturers either have to raise prices or quietly trim specifications, and both options erode the value buyers have grown used to.
Reports on a Worsening RAM crisis describe how smartphones and laptops are already being hit with worse specs and higher prices as manufacturers scramble to cope. Up to this point, the industry had been able to lean on older inventory and long‑term contracts, but as those buffers run out, the higher cost of new DRAM is starting to show up in product decisions. When a basic 8 GB configuration suddenly costs significantly more to build, the temptation is to keep the price tag steady and hope buyers do not notice that the machine now ships with 8 GB instead of 16 GB.
Why memory prices are spiking now
To understand why this is happening in 2025 and 2026, it helps to look at how DRAM and SSD markets behave in cycles. For several years, suppliers cut production as demand softened, then AI workloads and new devices soaked up the remaining capacity faster than expected. Once that inflection point hits, prices can climb quickly, because building new fabrication plants or retooling existing lines is a slow, capital‑intensive process. The result is a squeeze where every sector that relies on memory, from data centers to gaming rigs, is suddenly bidding for the same limited pool of chips.
One forecast notes that rising DRAM and SSD costs could push notebook prices up by as much as 15 percent, with the notebook market itself expected to struggle to achieve even 0.1 percent growth year on year. That kind of projection matters because it suggests manufacturers are not just dealing with a temporary blip, they are planning for a sustained period in which memory eats a larger share of the bill of materials. When that happens, the pressure to pass at least some of the increase on to consumers becomes difficult to resist.
PC makers are already warning buyers
The most telling sign that the cheap‑laptop era is ending is not in the component charts, it is in the language coming from the brands that actually sell these machines. When companies that have spent years competing on price start preparing customers for higher costs, I pay attention. In recent weeks, several major manufacturers have begun to signal that the days of deep discounts and generous specs at rock‑bottom prices are numbered.
One detailed report on upcoming models notes that Your Next Laptop Could Cost More and that The RAM Shortage Is a central part of the explanation, with brands like Lenovo and Dell telling partners that memory constraints are forcing them to rethink pricing. Another section of the same reporting traces how earlier shocks, from the pandemic to tariffs, have already tested the supply chain, and now the industry is bracing for yet another wave of cost pressure in the first half of the year. When manufacturers start managing expectations this explicitly, it is usually because they know the next generation of products will be harder to keep at current price points.
Dell, Lenovo and HP are moving first
Some brands are not just hinting at higher prices, they are already implementing them. Dell, Lenovo and HP sit at the center of the global PC market, and their decisions tend to ripple outward to smaller players and retailers. When they adjust pricing, it is often a preview of what the rest of the industry will feel comfortable doing once the initial backlash subsides.
One analysis of corporate strategies notes that Lenovo and HP are warning of a very expensive 2026, while Dell looks set to hike up its prices by almost 18 percent later this month. Separate coverage of Dell’s internal planning, based on a Poll of its own positioning, explains that Follow Polly Thompson found Dell preparing to increase its prices on December 17 as it responds to memory demand tied to the AI chip race. Another detailed breakdown notes that Dell raises PC prices by up to 20% as Lenovo warns of January hikes amid soaring DRAM costs, with Lenovo set to follow suit and early 2026 notebooks expected to be more expensive.
AI, Windows 10 and the demand shock
Behind these price moves is a demand shock that goes beyond ordinary consumer upgrades. The surge in AI workloads has turned GPUs and high‑capacity memory into strategic assets, and that competition spills over into the components used in everyday laptops. When data centers and AI developers are willing to pay a premium for the same DRAM that might otherwise go into a midrange notebook, suppliers naturally prioritize those higher margin orders, tightening supply for the rest of the market.
At the same time, the looming end of support for Microsoft Windows 10 is pushing organizations to refresh fleets of PCs that might have been kept in service for another year or two. One breakdown of the trend explains that The Windows 10 Deadline Is Driving Demand, with Microsoft policies effectively setting a countdown clock on older hardware. When that kind of forced upgrade cycle collides with constrained supply, the result is a seller’s market, and I expect laptop makers to use that leverage to rebuild margins that were squeezed during the discount years.
From bargain bins to “very expensive 2026”
For consumers, the shift will be most visible in the disappearance of those almost too‑good‑to‑be‑true deals that have defined the past few shopping seasons. Entry‑level machines that once dipped well below the 500 dollar mark with decent specs may creep upward, while the 1,000 dollar tier that used to buy a premium ultrabook could start to look more like today’s midrange. The psychological shock will be real, especially for buyers who delayed upgrades because they assumed prices would keep falling.
One detailed feature on current pricing notes that Laptops Have Never Been Cheaper
What early adopters and enthusiasts are seeing
Long before official price lists change, enthusiasts and early adopters tend to spot the cracks in the market, whether in component availability, prebuilt configurations, or the secondhand scene. Over the past few weeks, I have seen more anecdotal reports of people struggling to find specific RAM kits, noticing that upgrade options on new laptops are more limited, or being surprised by how much it costs to bump a configuration from 8 GB to 16 GB at checkout. Those micro‑signals often foreshadow broader shifts that will eventually reach mainstream buyers.
One widely shared discussion thread captures the mood with the blunt warning to Brace Yourself, arguing that Laptops Prices Are About to Skyrocket and that it is not just laptops, it is everything related to computing that is going to be expensive. While a Reddit post is not a market forecast, it reflects the lived experience of buyers who are already encountering higher prices and fewer deals on the ground, and that sentiment tends to spread quickly once people start comparing notes.
How to shop smart before the tide turns
If you are in the market for a new laptop, the emerging pattern suggests that waiting for 2026 in the hope of even cheaper machines is a risky bet. I would instead think in terms of a window that is still open but narrowing. That means focusing on configurations that will age gracefully, such as 16 GB of RAM and at least 512 GB of SSD storage, rather than chasing the absolute lowest price on a bare‑bones system that might feel cramped once software demands catch up.
Given the warnings from Lenovo and HP about a very expensive 2026 and the concrete moves by Dell to raise prices by up to 20 percent, I see a strong case for pulling forward any planned purchases into the next few months if your budget allows. That does not mean panic‑buying, but it does mean paying attention to current promotions, verifying that the RAM and SSD are sufficient for your needs, and recognizing that the same configuration could cost noticeably more once the full impact of the RAM crisis and Windows 10 deadline filters through the supply chain.
More from MorningOverview