Hurricane Trudy hit Category 3 with 120 mph winds as it nears Mexico’s coast

Hurricane Trudy hit Category 3 strength with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph on Friday, Oct. 16, then eased back to a 90 mph hurricane by Friday evening while still creeping toward the southwest coast of Mexico. The National Hurricane Center’s latest reachable advisory, issued at 9:00 p.m. CST (0300 UTC Oct. 17), put the center about 290 miles south-southeast of Manzanillo, moving north at 7 mph.

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No landfall had occurred as of that advisory. Forecasters expect the center to approach the coast on Saturday and pass near it Saturday night into Sunday, so the danger for Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco is still ahead even though the storm is weaker than it was a day earlier.

The Category 3 peak and the drop since

The 120 mph reading came in the 9:00 a.m. CST advisory on Oct. 16, which listed a minimum central pressure of 956 millibars at 14.6 north, 102.5 west, about 325 miles south-southeast of Manzanillo. The 3:00 a.m. CST advisory issued six hours earlier had already carried the same 120 mph figure. On the Saffir-Simpson scale, Category 3 covers sustained winds of 111 to 129 mph and is the first rung of what the hurricane center calls major hurricanes, with devastating damage to well-built framed homes.

By the 9:00 p.m. CST advisory, number 15, maximum sustained winds were 90 mph and the pressure had risen to 979 millibars. The center was at 15.2 north, 102.5 west, about 210 miles southwest of Acapulco. Hurricane-force winds still extend up to 30 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds up to 140 miles, the same footprint as at the peak.

Forecast track along the west-central coast

NHC forecaster Gibbs wrote in the evening forecast discussion that the storm is expected to turn north-northwest, then northwest at a faster speed, and pass very close to the coast of west-central Mexico through Sunday before moving away early next week. The forecast places the center near 19.0 north, 105.3 west at 36 hours and near 20.0 north, 106.1 west at 48 hours, and it shifted the track slightly left of the previous forecast while staying closer to Mexico than most guidance. No landfall is explicitly forecast, but the margin between a close pass and a landfall is small.

The discussion expects Trudy to strengthen somewhat over the next 24 hours, to about 105 mph, though dry air and the nearby coast could limit that. Increasing southwesterly wind shear and a drier mid-level environment should then cause steady weakening, with winds near 85 mph at 48 hours, a post-tropical remnant low by day four and dissipation by day five.

The Category 3 reading therefore remains the storm’s peak so far. In the morning discussion, the hurricane center had noted that intensification stalled twice during the previous day and that the eye looked less distinct, with an Air Force Reserve aircraft scheduled to investigate later Friday. The evening discussion raised the estimate from the satellite appearance, which improved, but the center did not expect a return to 120 mph; its own forecast tops out near 105 mph.

Rainfall totals and the mudslide threat

Water may do the broadest damage. The NHC expects 4 to 8 inches of rain across the southwest Mexican coast in Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco, with isolated totals near 15 inches, and it warns of life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially on steep terrain. Outer bands are forecast to drop 2 to 4 inches on the Guerrero and Nayarit coasts, with isolated totals near 6 inches. The rainfall forecast was unchanged from the morning advisory, even though the winds had dropped by 30 mph.

Storm surge, damaging winds and flooding rain are a growing risk along the southwestern and west-central coast this weekend, according to the discussion’s key messages, and large swells are spreading north, producing life-threatening surf and rip currents well ahead of the center.

Watches and warnings along the Pacific coast

Alerts have shifted north with the track, and the exact stretch under a hurricane warning is the clearest sign of where forecasters expect the strongest winds. The 9:00 p.m. advisory lists a Hurricane Warning from Manzanillo north to Cabo Corrientes, a Hurricane Watch from south of Manzanillo to Punta San Telmo, and a Tropical Storm Warning from south of Manzanillo to Zihuatanejo. A Tropical Storm Watch was newly issued from north of Cabo Corrientes to San Blas and for Las Islas Marias.

Residents and travelers along the coast can review evacuation and shelter guidance on the hurricane center’s preparedness pages, and should follow instructions from Mexican civil protection officials. The figures here reflect Friday evening and will keep changing, with the next advisories due at midnight and 3:00 a.m. CST.

This article was produced with the assistance of AI and reviewed by Morning Overview editors prior to publication.

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