The National Hurricane Center said in a Thursday morning discussion that Hurricane Trudy, a Category 1 storm with 75 mph winds in the eastern Pacific, is expected to approach southwestern and west-central Mexico this weekend, and it warned of life-threatening flooding and mudslides across the states of Colima and Jalisco. Forecasters expected the storm to strengthen into a major hurricane by Friday.
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Trudy is the third named system to threaten Mexico’s Pacific coast in a matter of days, following two storms that already left a death toll in the country.
Trudy’s intensity forecast from the National Hurricane Center
Discussion number 8, issued at 3 a.m. Central time on October 15, placed Trudy near 12.9 degrees north and 101.6 degrees west, moving northwest at about 8 knots. Maximum sustained winds were 65 knots, or 75 mph, and satellite and scatterometer data had prompted an upgrade to a Category 1 hurricane. Rapid intensification was possible during the following 24 hours, the forecasters wrote, with peak winds near 115 knots, or 130 mph, around 48 to 60 hours out.
The Saffir-Simpson scale helps explain why that forecast matters. The hurricane center’s description of the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale gives Category 1 as 74 to 95 mph and Category 3 as 111 to 129 mph, and it classes Category 3 and above as major hurricanes. A forecast peak of 130 mph is above the Category 3 range, so the storm would be well inside major-hurricane territory at its strongest. The agency also stresses that the scale rates only maximum sustained wind and does not capture storm surge, rainfall flooding or tornadoes, which can be deadly at any category.
Later on Thursday, the hurricane center’s public listing showed Trudy at 90 mph with a minimum pressure of 978 millibars, moving north-northwest at 6 mph, under a headline that it was expected to rapidly intensify.
Colima, Jalisco and the rain hazard
The center’s hazard statement identified heavy rain from Guerrero to Jalisco, with a risk of life-threatening flooding and mudslides in Colima and Jalisco, especially in steep terrain. Tropical-storm-force winds could reach parts of the coast as early as Saturday, and watches were likely to be issued later Thursday morning. Large swells were expected to begin Friday and continue through the weekend, with life-threatening surf and rip currents.
The track carried considerable uncertainty. Trudy was forecast to come toward the coast between Punta San Telmo and Cabo Corrientes and then turn westward away from Mexico early next week, but forecasters said confidence was low around days four and five. Weakening was expected by day three because of increasing wind shear and drier air, with winds falling to about 60 knots, or 70 mph, by 120 hours. Mexican authorities were guided by their own forecast as well: Uno TV reported that the national weather service projected a Category 3 hurricane on Thursday and Category 4 on Friday, and that Jalisco’s civil protection agency asked residents to follow official alerts.
A stretch of storms already testing the coast
Trudy formed on Tuesday, October 13, from Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E, and the Associated Press reported the tropical storm’s formation in the Pacific that day. In its first reports, Uno TV reported that Mexico’s navy, SEMAR, said conditions favored intensification to a Category 1 hurricane within 24 to 36 hours, and the outlet noted that dates, categories and locations were estimates that could change.
The new storm arrived while Mexico was still dealing with the last two. The Associated Press, in a report carried by the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, said six people had died from Hurricane Simon and the remnants of Tropical Storm Rachel as of Tuesday, October 13. Flooding from Rachel’s remnants killed at least five people in Ensenada, in Baja California, and five others were missing, while Simon’s rain in Guerrero killed one person, a 71-year-old in Chilpancingo, when a wall collapsed.
Simon was also still a hurricane at that point, moving parallel to the coast about 125 miles west of Cabo Corrientes, Jalisco, with maximum sustained winds of 110 mph. In Puerto Vallarta, rain had subsided, schools had reopened and airport operations were gradually resuming. The AP also reported on the same Tuesday that Trudy, then a tropical storm about 440 miles south-southeast of Acapulco, was forecast to become a hurricane on Wednesday and a major hurricane by Friday, a timeline that the National Hurricane Center’s Thursday discussion kept in place.
For residents and travelers in Colima and Jalisco, the practical points are the ones the hurricane center emphasized: the hurricane center singled out rain-driven flooding and mudslides for those two states, steep terrain raises the danger of mudslides, and the track beyond the weekend remains uncertain. Official watches and warnings from Mexican authorities and the hurricane center are the source for any evacuation or shelter instructions as the storm nears.
This article was produced with the assistance of AI and reviewed by Morning Overview editors prior to publication.
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