Heating oil costs are set to jump 31.3% this winter, energy-assistance directors say

Heating oil is projected to cost 31.3 percent more this winter than last, the steepest rise of any home heating fuel in a forecast from the National Energy Assistance Directors’ Association. The group, whose members are the state officials who run the federal low-income heating assistance program, put the average household heating bill across all fuels at $1,030, up $82 or 8.7 percent.

The projection covers winter 2026-27, and the association ties the oil jump to a war-driven climb in crude. Its own release says oil moved from about $72 a barrel to near $100, while Brent traded around $106 in mid-September.

NEADA’s fuel-by-fuel projection

The release from NEADA, dated September 14, 2026, lists four increases: heating oil 31.3 percent, electricity 9.0 percent, propane 8.7 percent and natural gas 5.8 percent. The 31.3 percent figure is NEADA’s own projection, not a number from the Energy Information Administration, and the document does not describe its methodology. It assumes a warmer winter from El Niño, and a colder one would push bills above the estimates.

For a household that actually burns oil, the stakes are larger than the national average suggests. According to CBS News’s reading of the release, heating oil customers face a cost of nearly $2,300 across the four-month stretch from mid-November 2026 to mid-March 2027, more than 30 percent above the prior year.

Oil-heated homes in the Northeast

NEADA, whose full name is the National Energy Assistance Directors’ Association, describes itself as the primary educational and policy organization for the state directors who administer the Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program. The federal LIHEAP program is run through the Department of Health and Human Services’ Office of Community Services and helps low-income families with heating and cooling bills, weatherization and minor energy-related repairs.

Oil is a regional problem. NEADA says nearly 4.8 million U.S. homes used heating oil as of 2024, and about 82 percent of them are in the Northeast. That concentration is why a 31.3 percent national oil figure lands unevenly: the average American household, which mostly heats with gas or electricity, sees a much smaller increase than a Northeast homeowner with an oil tank.

Executive Director Mark Wolfe, the only person quoted in the release, framed the oil increase around the conflict abroad. “While the war may be thousands of miles away, families will feel it when the heating oil truck pulls into their driveways,” he said, according to the CBS account. The release itself warns that “too many families are entering winter with no room left in their budgets.”

Prices the government tracks

The Energy Information Administration publishes the national price series that gives context to a percentage forecast. Its residential heating oil page showed a U.S. average of $5.535 a gallon on March 30, 2026, up $1.865 from the same date a year earlier. EIA collects heating oil and propane prices during the heating season, October through March, and says the weekly price data will return in October 2026.

EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook, released September 9, 2026, focuses on crude, natural gas, electricity and diesel, and notes that U.S. distillate fuel oil inventories were expected to drop below 100 million barrels in September. Distillate is the same refinery product family that supplies heating oil and diesel, so low stocks matter for the price. The outlook page read for this article did not publish a winter heating oil percentage that could be compared with NEADA’s, so 31.3 percent stands as the association’s estimate alone.

Assumptions behind the estimate

The same ConsumerAffairs summary of the NEADA material says approximately one in six U.S. households is behind on its utility bills, with residential utility debt approaching $23 billion. The release adds that in 2024 about 13.4 million electric service disconnections and 1.7 million natural gas disconnections for nonpayment were recorded, which is the backdrop NEADA sets against its projection that families are entering winter with little room left in their budgets.

The projection is a single association’s estimate built on a crude price and a weather assumption, and both can move before delivery season. NEADA’s own longer view shows how far oil has run: heating oil costs have risen 62.1 percent since winter 2021-22, against 35.7 percent for electric heating and 16.9 percent for natural gas, while propane remains 14.7 percent below its 2021-22 level, according to the NEADA projections as summarized by ConsumerAffairs.

The open number is the winter’s actual weather. NEADA’s 31.3 percent assumes the El Niño-driven warm spell that its release anticipates, which means the Northeast’s roughly 3.9 million oil-heated homes, 82 percent of 4.8 million, would face a bigger bill if that assumption fails.

This article was produced with the assistance of AI and reviewed by Morning Overview editors prior to publication.

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