Europe’s energy system is sitting on a vast reserve of heat that could do far more than warm homes. New analysis indicates that enhanced geothermal systems could replace 42% of the European Union’s coal and gas power, a scale of substitution that would redraw the bloc’s decarbonisation and energy security plans. If policymakers treat this subterranean resource as seriously as they did offshore wind a decade ago, geothermal could become the quiet workhorse that lets the EU phase out fossil fuels without sacrificing reliability.
Rather than a niche technology for volcanic regions, geothermal is emerging as a continent‑wide option thanks to advances in drilling and reservoir engineering. The strategic question is no longer whether the heat is there, but how quickly Europe can align regulation, finance and infrastructure to turn that heat into clean electricity and industrial steam at scale.
The scale of the heat beneath Europe
The most striking finding in the recent work on geothermal is its sheer system‑level potential. In BRUSSELS, New analysis from Ember, published under the banner The Heat Beneath Our Feet, concludes that enhanced Geothermal Could Replace 42% of EU Coal and Gas Power, effectively displacing almost half of the bloc’s fossil‑fired generation if fully developed. That figure is not a back‑of‑the‑envelope guess, but the result of detailed analysis of resource quality, drilling depth and grid needs across member states, and it reframes geothermal from a marginal player into a central pillar of the transition.
The same research finds that Europe’s geothermal potential may expand fiftyfold as technologies originally developed for oil and gas, such as advanced Conv drilling and stimulation techniques, are repurposed for clean heat extraction. This implies that the limiting factor is no longer geology alone, but the pace at which governments and investors are willing to repurpose skills and capital from fossil fuel projects into long‑lived geothermal assets that can run for decades with minimal fuel risk.
From niche to backbone: why geothermal is different
Geothermal’s strategic value lies in its ability to provide clean, firm power rather than only variable output. As Europe intensifies efforts to phase out fossil fuels, analysts have highlighted that Geothermal energy emerges as a game‑changer for Europe’s energy transition because plants can operate at a high capacity factor typical for geothermal plants, delivering round‑the‑clock electricity that complements wind and solar. That reliability is particularly valuable in winter, when heating demand surges and solar output falls, and it is one reason why BRUSSELS policymakers are now treating geothermal as a grid‑stability tool rather than a curiosity.
Unlike imported gas, the heat resource under Europe’s feet is not exposed to geopolitical shocks or shipping bottlenecks, which is why Ember’s work stresses that Europe’s geothermal potential may expand fiftyfold and reduce the bloc’s dependence on fossil fuel imports. For households, the analogy is simple: swapping a volatile, foreign‑supplied fuel for a fixed‑price, local heat source is like replacing a variable‑rate mortgage with a long‑term fixed loan, trading short‑term bargains for long‑term security.
Country‑level opportunity: Germany, France, Poland and Hungary
One of the most persistent myths about geothermal is that it only works in places like Iceland. In reality, countries such as Germany and France sit atop promising sedimentary basins where enhanced systems can unlock high‑temperature resources at depth. Europe’s geothermal potential may expand fiftyfold as deeper drilling becomes economic, and that expansion is particularly relevant for industrial regions in southern Germany and eastern France that currently rely on gas for process heat. The fact that these are also engineering powerhouses suggests a natural fit between local industry and the supply chains needed to build geothermal plants.
Further east, the opportunity is just as significant. Poland and Hungary have long histories of using thermal waters for district heating and spas, but the new analysis shows that enhanced systems could turn those traditions into large‑scale power and industrial heat. In Hungary, for example, the combination of sedimentary basins and existing drilling expertise gives the country a realistic path to replace a substantial share of gas‑fired generation, while Poland’s coal‑heavy grid could use geothermal to decarbonise both electricity and urban heating without waiting for perfect wind conditions.
Costs, competitiveness and the firm‑power premium
Cost is often cited as a barrier, yet recent work on global geothermal economics suggests the picture is more nuanced. Compared to the electricity costs of onshore wind at 0.02 and 0.03 €/kWh, and PV below 0.02 €/kWh, enhanced geothermal power can be more expensive per kilowatt‑hour, according to a technical assessment that uses the framing Compared to benchmark renewables. However, that same research notes that when the value of firm capacity is included, geothermal’s levelised cost becomes competitive with gas and coal, particularly in systems that would otherwise need expensive backup or storage to balance variable renewables.
In Europe, that trade‑off is already visible in modelling that shows Geothermal could replace 42% of the EU’s coal and gas‑fired generation at costs comparable to coal and gas power, as highlighted in a Linked summary of Ember’s work. That is before factoring in the insurance value of avoiding fuel price spikes, which recent crises have shown can add tens of billions of euros to consumer bills in a single winter.
Technology leaps: from depth barrier to 43 G of capacity
For decades, depth has been the primary barrier to geothermal deployment, limiting projects to shallow, naturally permeable reservoirs. The Heat Beneath Our Feet explains how advances in drilling and reservoir stimulation now allow developers to reach hotter rock at greater depths, turning previously uneconomic areas into viable sites. Europe’s geothermal potential may expand fiftyfold as these techniques spread, and that shift is particularly important for countries without obvious volcanic resources that had previously written themselves out of the geothermal story.
On the supply side, cost‑competitive geothermal is ready to scale across Europe, with Around 43 G of enhanced capacity in the European Unio identified as realistic by mid‑2030s scenarios in Ember’s Cost analysis. If that capacity is built, it would rival the current nuclear fleet in several member states in terms of annual output, but with far shorter construction times and the ability to colocate plants near industrial clusters that need both power and heat.
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*This article was researched with the help of AI, with human editors creating the final content.
