The National Weather Service office in Fairbanks is forecasting 18 to 36 inches of snow above 2,500 feet on the Richardson Highway, with south wind gusts to 65 mph on part of the same corridor. The heavy snow begins Monday morning, October 19, Alaska time and is scheduled to last until early Thursday.
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Those are the numbers from the office’s afternoon update on Sunday, October 18, and they are larger than the ones that circulated a day earlier. The storm is aimed at the Eastern Alaska Range, the stretch of road that links Delta Junction in the north with Paxson and the Copper River country in the south.
NWS Fairbanks upgrades the watch to a Winter Storm Warning
The most current text on the Fairbanks list of active watches, warnings and advisories is a Winter Storm Warning issued at 2:59 p.m. Alaska Daylight Time on Sunday for zones AKZ849 and AKZ850, the Eastern Alaska Range north and south of Trims Camp, which cover Richardson Highway mileposts 202 through 224 and 224 through 259. It is valid from 7 a.m. Monday to 4 a.m. Thursday, calls for 18 to 36 inches above 2,500 feet, with more above pass level, and 12 to 24 inches below 2,500 feet, and carries gusts to 40 mph.
The warning is a step up from the earlier watch. The Winter Storm Watch that Fairbanks issued at 4:35 a.m. Saturday, October 17, gave 12 to 24 inches above 2,500 feet and 6 to 12 inches below it, with the impact statement that travel could be very difficult and that blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. Trade coverage on Sunday morning, led by Autoblog’s weather report, had the intermediate figures of 12 to 18 inches below 2,500 feet and 18 to 30 inches above, which is the source of the earlier 30-inch figure. The afternoon warning raised the top of the range by six inches.
The wind advisory behind the 65-mph gusts
The 65-mph figure belongs to a separate product. The Fairbanks Wind Advisory for zone AKZ849, mileposts 224 through 259, calls for south winds of 30 to 40 mph with gusts to 65 mph. The advisory text issued Saturday afternoon ran from 4 a.m. Monday to 4 a.m. Tuesday, and the Sunday afternoon update on the active list shortened and shifted it to midnight Sunday night through 10 p.m. Monday. It warns that light snow could cause blowing snow and reduced visibility and that gusts can move unsecured objects and make travel difficult.
The two figures therefore describe different hours of the same event. The wind arrives first, out of the south, on Monday. The heavy snow builds late Monday into Wednesday as winds shift to the north, and the warning itself lists gusts of only 40 mph.
The warning is not confined to the Richardson corridor. Fairbanks also issued Winter Storm Warnings for the Upper Tanana Valley, Fortymile Country and Delta Junction from 10 p.m. Monday to 4 p.m. Wednesday, and for the Yukon Flats, White Mountains and Upper Chena from 10 a.m. Tuesday to 4 p.m. Wednesday with 5 to 10 inches. A drive from Delta Junction toward Paxson passes through all three bands of snowfall, from single digits at the start to well over a foot at Isabel Pass.
Forecaster uncertainty and the Anchorage side
Fairbanks forecasters were open about the uncertainty. In the area forecast discussion written at 2:15 p.m. Saturday, they said snow of “upwards of 1 to 2 feet” was possible at Isabel Pass, noted that confidence was increasing, and added that model timing and placement still varied. The active-hazards text for Sunday carried a sharper caution, that a 30-mile shift in the heavy snow band would make large differences in totals.
The National Weather Service office in Anchorage covers the southern end. Its Winter Weather Advisory for Thompson Pass calls for 10 to 18 inches from 4 a.m. Monday to 4 a.m. Wednesday, and a second advisory for the Northern Copper Valley, which includes Paxson and the eastern Denali Highway, calls for 4 to 10 inches through 4 p.m. Tuesday. Farther north, Fairbanks has 6 to 12 inches for Delta Junction and Tok, with 12 to 18 inches locally from Tanacross to Dot Lake, and a separate watch for 4 to 8 inches around Fairbanks, North Pole and Nenana.
The NWS Fairbanks forecast page showed its hazard map last updated at 6:46 p.m. Alaska Daylight Time on Sunday, October 18, so the products above were the latest readable ones when this report was prepared. With the warning beginning at 7 a.m. Alaska time, which is 11 a.m. Eastern, and the wind advisory already in force, the first conditions on the Richardson Highway arrive during Monday’s working hours on the East Coast. Drivers and freight operators using the corridor between Delta Junction and Paxson face a three-day window in which the warning, not the wind advisory, sets the planning figure, since the advisory ends at 10 p.m. Monday while the warning runs until 4 a.m. Thursday.
This article was produced with the assistance of AI and reviewed by Morning Overview editors prior to publication.
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