Fires have burned 9,060,375 acres this year, and eight large ones are still uncontained

The National Interagency Fire Center’s situation report for Oct. 26 puts this year’s wildfire total at 9,060,375 acres, burned across 66,494 fires, and it lists eight large fires that firefighters had not yet contained. They are East Bailey Road in Oklahoma, Range 47B in Mississippi, Bee Haven 2 24-06 in Florida, Ridge and Black River in Michigan, Austin in Oregon, Sisi in Washington and Timber in California.

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The national picture on that morning was a quiet one by fire-season standards. The center held the National Preparedness Level at 1, the lowest rung on its five-step scale, and reported 1,230 firefighters and support staff committed nationwide. The year’s total is still far above normal, which is what makes the late-season count worth reading closely.

The eight uncontained large fires on the Oct. 26 list

The Incident Management Situation Report, issued at 0730 Mountain time on Monday, Oct. 26, sorts the eight fires by geographic area. The Southern Area, at Preparedness Level 2, carries three: East Bailey Road in Oklahoma, Range 47B in Mississippi and Bee Haven 2 24-06 in Florida. The Eastern Area, at Level 1, carries two Michigan fires, Ridge and Black River. The Northwest Area has two, Austin in Oregon and Sisi in Washington, and Southern California, at Level 2, has one: Timber.

Containment on the list runs from 34 percent to 98 percent, so “uncontained” is the report’s category label and not a sign that any of these fires is raging. Timber, in California’s Los Padres National Forest unit, is the largest at 25,350 acres and 97 percent contained with 148 personnel assigned. Austin follows at 12,888 acres and 98 percent contained with 168 personnel, and Sisi is 4,743 acres at 34 percent, the least contained of the eight, with just 28 people on it.

The smaller fires are mostly in the South and the Great Lakes. Bee Haven 2 24-06 stands at 2,060 acres and 80 percent contained, Range 47B at 636 acres and 50 percent, Ridge at 466 acres and 50 percent, Black River at 326 acres and 80 percent, and East Bailey Road at 104 acres and 40 percent. Each is staffed by between four and 25 people, a reminder that most of what remains on the national list is small ground that crews are mopping up.

Austin has the longest paper trail. Officials said in early September that the blaze, which began on Aug. 9 in the Mt. Hood National Forest about 25 miles southeast of Estacada, Oregon, had been determined to be human-caused, and FOX 12 in Portland reported it at about 12,610 acres and 21 percent contained on Sept. 4. The Oct. 26 report shows it has grown by roughly 280 acres since and is now within two points of full containment.

Nine million acres against the ten-year average

The report measures the season against the ten years from 2016 through 2025. Fires are at 132 percent of the average of 50,330 for this point in the year, and acres are at 141 percent of an expected 6,421,694, which leaves this year about 2.6 million acres ahead of the typical pace. The center compiles these counts from reports by federal, state, local and tribal land management agencies, and its published annual wildfire statistics run back to 1983, the first year the agencies tracked fires on the current reporting process.

The latest daily numbers are small. The report counts 51 new fires on Oct. 25 that burned 446 acres in total, and the Southern Area accounted for 36 of them and 441 of those acres. Eight more new fires were in Northern California, five in Southern California, one in the Northwest and one in the Great Basin. Across the country 35 incidents covered 398,011 acres with 20 crews, 67 engines and eight helicopters at work, and no national incident management teams were committed.

Southern fuels and the November outlook

The Southern Area’s weight on the list matters because the center expects it to stay active. In its monthly outlook issued on Oct. 1, the center forecast above-normal significant fire potential for November in eastern Oklahoma, northeast Texas, Arkansas, north Mississippi, west and middle Tennessee and Kentucky, with the rest of the contiguous United States at normal. Two of the three Southern Area fires on the Oct. 26 list, East Bailey Road and Range 47B, are in Oklahoma and Mississippi, both states the forecast names in part.

The outlook’s reasoning is specific. The Southern Area wrote that no obvious drought relief is anticipated, and the document says a strong to very strong El Nino typically favors drier weather across those states. Leaf drop in late October and November adds fresh surface fuel, and heavier fuels left by Hurricane Helene and by Mississippi Valley ice storm damage are becoming more burnable as they dry out. December and January are forecast at normal potential for the contiguous states.

The center’s public national fire news page is where the daily counts are posted, and it showed the same preparedness level of 1 on its mid-October update. The open question for the weeks ahead is whether the Southern Area’s November risk produces new large fires to replace the ones now being mopped up, or whether the national tally of uncontained large fires keeps falling toward zero.

This article was produced with the assistance of AI and reviewed by Morning Overview editors prior to publication.

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