A sharp cold front is pushing toward Texas, and federal forecasters expect it to unleash strong thunderstorms and heavy rain from the Panhandle to the Gulf Coast. Early guidance from national forecast centers points to a mix of deep Gulf moisture and fast upper-level winds, a setup that can turn a routine winter front into a higher-impact event when it aligns over populated areas.
Key signals come from national discussions in Washington and from local forecast offices inside Texas, which are highlighting both a heavy-rain threat and the chance for severe storms. Together, those outlooks outline a corridor where intense downpours, rapid runoff, and pockets of damaging wind or hail are all possible as the front sweeps across the state.
Cold front and storm setup
The backbone of this event is a surface low-pressure system dragging a cold front across the southern Plains, a common winter pattern that can still tap very warm, humid air from the Gulf of Mexico. In its national short-range discussion, the federal product known as the Short Range Forecast Discussion (PMDSPD) describes this surface low and cold front, with the forecast valid from 12Z Friday, February 13, 2026, through 12Z Sunday, February 15, 2026. That discussion, issued by the Weather Prediction Center at 0652Z on February 13 with a header time of 1:49 a.m. Eastern, explains how the front will act as the main focus for thunderstorm development as it moves into Texas from the northwest and then continues east during the valid period, according to the official PMDSPD page.
Because the PMDSPD is written for the entire country, it places the Texas threat within a broader storm system affecting several regions, yet it still pinpoints areas where rainfall and severe weather hazards are likely. The discussion notes that language about both excessive rainfall and severe thunderstorms is built into the forecast, so forecasters are tracking not only the front’s position but also where higher-end risk categories for heavy rain and severe storms overlap. That guidance, produced by the same Weather Prediction Center that maintains national short-range products, is what local Texas offices then translate into more specific timing and impact messages for their own counties.
Excessive rainfall and flash flooding risk
On the rainfall side, one of the clearest signals comes from the Excessive Rainfall Outlook (ERO) Interactive Display, a federal tool designed to flag flash flooding risk. For this event, the Day 1 outlook is valid from 1200Z Friday, February 13, 2026, through 1200Z Saturday, February 14, 2026, a 24-hour window that lines up with the cold front’s first push into Texas. This product, issued by the same NOAA / National Weather Service / NCEP / Weather Prediction Center office that writes the short-range discussion, assigns risk categories to different parts of the country and includes metrics that show the population and land area exposed to each level of excessive rainfall threat, as described on the official ERO site.
The interactive display is national in scope, but its design is especially useful for a large state like Texas, where risk can change sharply over short distances. For example, the federal tool can show a user that one risk area includes 698 thousand people while another covers 035 thousand residents, giving emergency managers a quick sense of how many people might be affected in each zone. It can also list county-level identifiers, such as a region code like 19465, and the number of counties, such as 21, included in a given risk area, which helps local officials match the national outlook to their own jurisdictions. Because the display is updated by Weather Prediction Center forecasters who also prepare broader rainfall forecasts, it serves as a bridge between raw meteorological guidance and real-world risk, helping Texas communities decide when to close low-water crossings, pre-position swift-water rescue teams, or activate emergency operations centers.
Local focus: West Texas and Lubbock
National outlooks, however, need local context to become truly useful. In West Texas, the Weather Forecast Office in Lubbock is already turning the broader storm picture into more concrete expectations for its region. The office’s “Rain & Storms Ahead” information, available through its main event page, presents a focused view of the event window, including graphics that highlight expected Friday and Saturday rainfall amounts and a panel dedicated to the excessive rainfall outlook for Friday. Those office-created materials are tied to the same time frame described in the national guidance, but they sharpen the message for residents from the South Plains into the Rolling Plains, who face a different mix of threats than cities along the Gulf Coast, according to the Lubbock office’s event page.
The Lubbock office’s emphasis on both “Friday & Saturday Rainfall Amounts” and an “Excessive Rainfall Outlook: Friday” suggests that forecasters there are concerned about more than just a few isolated storms. Instead, they are preparing for a longer stretch of wet weather as the front moves through and lingering moisture fuels additional showers behind it. That matters in a region where playa lakes, shallow draws, and low-lying intersections can fill quickly, even when rainfall totals are modest by coastal Texas standards. By presenting targeted graphics and timing cues, the Lubbock office turns national-scale risk categories into actionable information, such as which hours are most likely to see heavier bands or when travel could become hazardous on rural farm-to-market roads.
Why urban Texas is especially exposed
When the national products are compared with local messaging, a clear pattern emerges: much of the risk is concentrated where concrete and asphalt dominate. The Excessive Rainfall Outlook’s population metrics are designed to highlight where large numbers of people intersect with higher risk categories, which often means urban corridors along Interstate 35 and in the Houston region. When a fast-moving cold front forces intense rainfall over those built-up areas, water has fewer places to soak into the ground, and runoff funnels quickly into bayous, creeks, and storm drains that may already be carrying elevated flows from earlier showers within the outlook period.
Public discussion of events like this often focuses on hail size or the chance of a tornado rather than on how quickly streets can flood once the heaviest cells pass over a city. The hazard language in the PMDSPD, which mentions excessive rainfall alongside severe thunderstorm risk, presents a more balanced picture by signaling that the flood threat can be as significant as wind or hail. If that message is shortened or simplified too much in social media posts or brief television segments, urban residents may underestimate how fast conditions can deteriorate once the front arrives, even when official outlooks are highlighting overlapping areas of heavy rain and severe storm potential.
Forecast gaps and what to watch next
There are still important gaps in the public picture of this storm. Neither the national short-range discussion nor the Excessive Rainfall Outlook provides neighborhood-level rainfall totals or detailed soil saturation data for specific Texas metro areas, and the local office graphics, while helpful, do not always spell out how forecast totals compare with past flooding thresholds. Without official numbers on how wet or dry the ground is before the event, it is difficult to say exactly how much rain will trigger rapid runoff in any given basin. That uncertainty is one reason emergency planners rely heavily on categorical outlooks and past experience, while recognizing the limits of those tools.
As the cold front moves through, the most useful signals for Texans will likely come from a combination of updated national discussions, refreshed excessive rainfall outlooks, and real-time adjustments from local forecast offices. Later versions of the PMDSPD may shift the axis of heaviest rain, and new ERO updates may expand or contract higher risk categories over major cities, while offices like Lubbock’s can update their rainfall graphics to reflect new data. Taken together, those changes will show whether the front is behaving as early guidance suggested or organizing into a more intense line of storms with heavier downpours and a higher chance of flash flooding than first expected, based on how federal forecasters adjust their risk categories over time.
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*This article was researched with the help of AI, with human editors creating the final content.
