China set out to dominate the electric vehicle age and largely succeeded, but the breakneck expansion has now produced a glut of batteries, idle factories, and a new wave of crime around the metals inside discarded packs. What began as a showcase of industrial policy has curdled into a messy second act in which surplus cars pile up in fields, lithium-ion cells outnumber buyers, and thieves chase copper and nickel faster than regulators can respond.
I see a story that is no longer just about green technology or industrial strategy, but about what happens when a state pushes too hard, too fast, without building the systems to safely retire and reuse what it creates. The same policies that filled Chinese streets with cheap EVs are now forcing officials to confront battery graveyards, fire risks, and a shadow economy feeding on the leftovers.
From subsidy miracle to structural hangover
China’s electric car push was engineered from the top down, with lavish subsidies, cheap credit, and local mandates that turned EVs into a national project rather than a simple consumer choice. That interventionist approach worked spectacularly at first, creating a dense ecosystem of manufacturers and suppliers that could churn out vehicles and packs at a pace rivals could not match, and it helped make Chinese brands synonymous with affordable plug-in cars. As the market matured, however, the same tools that fueled the boom left the country with far more capacity than demand, and the cracks are now visible in everything from idle assembly lines to unsold inventory.
Analysts now describe China’s EV troubles as the direct result of policies that produced an unsustainable glut of vehicles and batteries, with factories still geared to expansion even as buyers hesitate. One detailed account of China’s EV woes traces how generous incentives and local protectionism encouraged overbuilding, leaving automakers to dump low mileage “used” cars and slash prices to clear stock. The result is a market that looks less like a smooth transition to clean transport and more like a classic industrial hangover, with batteries at the center of the imbalance.
A global battery surplus with Chinese characteristics
The battery sector illustrates the problem in its purest form, because planners assumed that demand would keep rising in a straight line and built capacity accordingly. Instead, growth in EV sales has slowed, and the world now faces what industry observers describe as a global surplus of lithium-ion cells, with production lines capable of turning out far more packs than carmakers can absorb. That mismatch is particularly acute in China, where the supply chain is dense, vertically integrated, and still optimized for expansion rather than consolidation.
One industry review notes that a Global Battery Surplus Emerges as factories keep running ahead of demand, leaving producers with excess inventory and shrinking margins. Another market-focused analysis projects that China’s Lithium Battery Demand to Fall Sharply in Early 2026, with a downturn in domestic consumption that will further widen the gap between what factories can make and what the market can absorb. In practice, that means more cells sitting in warehouses, more pressure to cut corners, and more temptation to offload surplus into poorly regulated channels.
EV graveyards and the visual shock of excess
Nothing captures the scale of China’s overshoot like the images of abandoned electric cars lined up in fields on the outskirts of major cities. What were once symbols of national pride now appear in drone footage as endless rows of unused vehicles, their battery packs aging in place while weeds grow around their tires. These graveyards are not just an aesthetic embarrassment, they are a physical manifestation of misallocated capital and a looming environmental headache as thousands of packs approach the end of their safe storage life.
Online communities have amplified these scenes, with one widely shared post titled China’s Electric Car Boom Collapses describing cars that Cars Turn to Scrap in Giant EV Graveyards that symbolize excess, debt, and decay. Another thread on China’s Electric Car Boom Collapses echoes the same theme, describing how what was once hailed as the pride of Chinese innovation has turned into a national disaster as cars are parked and forgotten. These posts are not official statistics, but they capture a public mood that sees the EV surge less as a green triumph and more as a cautionary tale.
When surplus batteries meet weak recycling systems
The battery glut would be less alarming if China had a robust, profitable recycling system ready to catch the wave of end-of-life packs, but the infrastructure has not kept pace with production. Approved recyclers complain that they cannot secure enough used batteries at viable prices, even as informal operators strip packs in back alleys and ship valuable metals through opaque channels. The result is a paradox in which high quality facilities sit idle while unsafe workshops thrive, and the environmental benefits of electrification are eroded by poor handling of waste.
One detailed assessment of how China can address its EV battery-recycling challenge quotes Zeng Yuqun, chairperson of CATL, a lithium-ion battery manufacturer, warning that, on the whole, approved recycling businesses struggle to obtain used batteries and a large amount of high quality recycling capacity is sitting idle. Academic work on the rapid growth of the global electric vehicle market underscores the scale of the challenge, noting that the surge in lithium-ion batteries, electric motors, and electronics will require sophisticated processes for selective collection, element extraction, and component regeneration. Without those systems fully in place, surplus packs become both a wasted resource and a latent hazard.
The crime wave around discarded packs
As the value of metals inside EV batteries becomes clearer and legitimate recycling channels struggle, a shadow economy has emerged to fill the gap. Thieves target parked cars, charging depots, and storage yards, stripping packs for copper, nickel, and lithium that can be sold into informal networks with little oversight. In some cases, entire vehicles are stolen not for resale as transport, but for the scrap value of their battery modules, a reversal of the usual logic of car theft.
One report on how There are plenty of different reasons why electric vehicles have not yet taken off in certain markets describes how China’s EV boom has left it with a battery and crime problem, as surplus packs and weak oversight create opportunities for illegal dismantling and resale. Researchers examining repurposing electric vehicle batteries from a repurposer perspective warn that mishandling end-of-life packs can release toxic substances during incineration and create safety risks, which are precisely the kinds of shortcuts that illegal operators are likely to take. In practice, the line between recycling, repurposing, and theft is blurring, and the state is racing to catch up.
Regulators scramble: safety and export controls
Faced with both domestic safety concerns and international backlash over cheap exports, Chinese authorities are tightening the rules around EVs and batteries. On the safety front, regulators are moving to eliminate one of the public’s biggest fears by effectively outlawing serious battery fires, a bold attempt to restore confidence in the technology. At the same time, they are trying to rein in the flood of low cost vehicles heading overseas, which has triggered trade tensions and accusations of dumping.
China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, known as the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology or MIIT, has announced new mandatory national safety standards that set a “no fire, no explosion” requirement for EV batteries, specifying that packs must not harm vehicle occupants even in severe incidents. A separate explainer on how china genuinely just banned EV fires describes a new law that will force 100 percent safety compliance from next year in June, reflecting the political urgency of preventing high profile accidents. On the trade side, officials have decided that China to Require EV Export Licenses Starting in 2026, with warnings that unauthorized exporters risk damaging brand reputation and user experience overseas while also driving price wars that hurt domestic automakers as they expand globally.
Export pressure and the global spillover
As domestic demand softens and inventories swell, Chinese manufacturers have turned even more aggressively to foreign markets, selling compact EVs at prices that undercut local competitors from Europe to Latin America. That strategy helps clear some stock and keep factories running, but it also exports the consequences of China’s overcapacity, flooding other countries with cheap vehicles and raising questions about long term sustainability. Policymakers abroad are increasingly wary of becoming the dumping ground for surplus cars and batteries that Chinese consumers no longer want.
European observers describe how Stricter rules for Chinese electric car exports are being considered as Too many made in China vehicles, including EVs priced around 15,000 euros, are seen as distorting local markets. The new Chinese export license regime is partly a response to that pressure, an attempt to show that Beijing can police its own companies and prevent the worst forms of dumping. Yet as long as domestic battery demand is falling and factories remain underutilized, the incentive to push surplus products abroad will remain strong.
Recycling push: doubling capacity and chasing lost value
Recognizing that it cannot simply build and export its way out of the problem, China is now trying to turn its battery glut into a resource by scaling up formal recycling. Officials have announced plans to expand the capacity of facilities that can safely dismantle packs, recover metals, and feed them back into the supply chain, framing this as both an environmental necessity and an industrial opportunity. The challenge is to ensure that these plants receive a steady stream of used batteries and that their output is competitive with freshly mined materials.
A recent policy push highlighted how China expands battery recycling with a new plan to double the capacity of its electric vehicle recycling system, a move presented as a way to reduce pollution and capture more of the value locked in end-of-life packs. In parallel, technical studies on processes in selective collection, element extraction, and component regeneration emphasize that sophisticated methods are needed to handle lithium-ion batteries, electric motors, and electronics at scale. If China can align its policy ambitions with these technical realities, the current glut could become the feedstock for a world leading recycling industry rather than a long term liability.
Second life and the race to repurpose
Beyond shredding and smelting, there is a growing effort to give EV batteries a second life in less demanding applications, from stationary storage to backup power for buildings. Packs that are no longer suitable for fast charging and long range driving can still deliver useful energy in contexts where weight and volume matter less, extending their productive life and delaying the moment when they must be recycled. For a country sitting on a mountain of surplus cells, repurposing offers a way to ease the immediate pressure on recycling plants and reduce waste.
Researchers studying repurposing electric vehicle batteries note that, on complementing the growth of EV sales in the past decade, handling batteries whose state of health has declined requires careful assessment, standardized testing, and clear business models for repurposers. They also warn that improper disposal, including incineration, can release hazardous substances, underscoring why second life strategies must be embedded in a broader framework of safe handling. In China’s case, success will depend on whether regulators can channel used packs away from informal scrappers and into legitimate repurposing and recycling pipelines that reward compliance rather than shortcuts.
What China’s EV reckoning means for the rest of the world
China’s experience is a warning to other countries racing to electrify transport without fully planning for what happens when the first generation of vehicles and batteries reaches retirement. The combination of industrial overcapacity, weak end-of-life systems, and opportunistic crime is not unique to one country, it is a structural risk wherever policy drives rapid adoption without matching investment in recycling, repurposing, and enforcement. As more nations set ambitious EV targets, the Chinese case shows that the back end of the lifecycle can no longer be treated as an afterthought.
At the same time, there is an opportunity in how Beijing responds. If initiatives like the FOCUS on expanding battery recycling, the MIIT’s “no fire” standard, and the new export license regime succeed, they could become templates for managing the next wave of electrification globally. If they fail, the images of cars turn into scrap in fields and the stories of stolen packs feeding a black market will stand as a stark reminder that clean technology, without careful governance, can create its own kind of pollution and disorder.
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