Switzerland is quietly rewriting one of its biggest defence purchases in decades, scaling back its planned fleet of F-35 fighter jets after a sharp jump in costs blew a hole in the approved budget. What began as a straightforward order for 36 American aircraft has turned into a test of how far a fiscally conservative country is willing to stretch its finances for cutting-edge airpower.
The decision to reduce the buy is not about changing threat perceptions so much as arithmetic: a surge in programme expenses of up to $1.6 billion has collided with a hard spending ceiling set by Swiss voters, forcing the government to accept fewer jets than originally promised and to defend that retreat at home and abroad.
The original 36-jet plan meets a hard budget wall
When Bern first committed to the F-35, the plan was clear: acquire 36 aircraft to replace ageing fleets and anchor Swiss air defence for decades. That number, 36, was sold domestically as the minimum needed to guarantee round-the-clock air policing and to integrate fully with European partners, all within a fixed financial envelope approved in a national vote. Officials framed the package as a once-in-a-generation investment that would modernise the air force without breaking the country’s tradition of budget discipline.
That political compact has now been strained by a steep rise in procurement costs, with Swiss authorities acknowledging that a US-driven increase of up to $1.6 billion has made it impossible to buy all 36 jets within the money already authorised. In a formal Decision, the government linked the cut directly to that $1.6 surge, underscoring that the original 36 figure was never a wish list but a ceiling constrained by what voters had agreed to spend.
Federal Council signals a smaller fleet, but keeps the final number vague
Faced with those overruns, the Federal Council has publicly accepted that the F-35 fleet will be smaller than first advertised, even if it is not yet ready to pin down the exact size. The government has indicated that the revised plan will likely revolve around roughly 35 aircraft, a subtle but politically loaded reduction that acknowledges the financial squeeze while trying to preserve operational credibility. By floating that 35 figure, the Federal Council is testing how much trimming the public and parliament will tolerate before they see the project as hollowed out.
Senior figures have been careful to frame the move as a reluctant response to “Additional” costs rather than a loss of ambition. Federal Councillor Martin Pfis has emerged as a key voice explaining why the Federal Council is shifting from the original blueprint and why a fleet closer to 35 jets might still meet core defence needs. The government’s messaging, reflected in its own statements and in coverage of the Federal Council debate, stresses that the choice is between a slightly smaller fleet and breaching the budget mandate, not between modernisation and austerity.
Cost overruns and CHF pressure make 36-unit procurement “not financially feasible”
The financial mechanics behind the rethink are stark. The overall programme has been hit by a CHF 1.3 billion overrun, a jump large enough to push the project beyond the spending level that Swiss voters endorsed when they backed the F-35 in a contentious referendum. In practical terms, that means the original 36-unit package can no longer be delivered without either cutting other defence priorities or going back to the electorate to ask for more money, a step the government is keen to avoid.
Officials now describe the full 36-unit acquisition as “not financially feasible” under the current cap, a phrase that has become shorthand for the political red line around the budget. The revised plan still aims to field a fifth-generation fighter fleet at roughly CHF6 billion, but the arithmetic only works if the number of aircraft comes down. Reporting on Switzerland makes clear that the CHF overrun is not a marginal fluctuation but a structural shift in programme costs that effectively forces Bern to trim the fleet.
Swiss leaders admit they “do not know exactly” how many jets they can afford
Behind the scenes, the uncertainty runs deeper than the public 35-jet signalling suggests. Swiss Defence Minister Martin Pfister has openly conceded that the government “does not know exactly” how many aircraft the country will ultimately be able to afford, a rare admission of fluid planning in a procurement culture that usually prizes precision. That comment, delivered at a press conference in Bern, reflects the moving target created by US inflation, exchange rates and ongoing negotiations over industrial terms.
The fact that Swiss Defence Minister Martin Pfister chose to air that uncertainty in Bern rather than hide it in technical briefings shows how volatile the cost environment has become. His remarks, captured in detailed coverage of the Swiss Defence Minister Martin Pfister briefing, underline that the final fleet size will depend not only on domestic politics but also on how US inflation and contract talks evolve over the next few years.
US price hikes and industrial negotiations ripple into Bern’s calculus
The Swiss rethink is rooted in decisions far beyond its borders. A key driver of the overruns is the US side of the programme, where negotiations between Washington, Lockheed Martin and RTX’s engine supplier have pushed up the cost of later production lots. As those higher prices flow through to export customers, countries like Switzerland are discovering that the jets they thought they had locked in are now significantly more expensive, even before factoring in support and upgrades.
Swiss officials have linked the squeeze directly to these external dynamics, noting that the issue is tied to US government talks with Lockheed Martin and RTX, and specifically with Pratt and Whitney on the engine side. The Office of the Secretary of Defense has even deferred detailed questions about the reduced Swiss buy back to Bern, underscoring that Washington sees the fleet size as a sovereign choice shaped by local politics. Coverage of the US angle highlights how The Office of the Secretary of Defense has acknowledged a $610 million price hike, while separate reporting on cost growth traces the pressure back to Lockheed Martin and RTX and their work with Pratt and Whitney.
Domestic politics: from parliamentary sceptics to Air Force commanders
Inside Switzerland, the F-35 debate has never been purely technical. Critics in parliament warned early on that the aircraft could end up costing more than advertised, and those warnings now look prescient. Indeed, in February 2025, Priska Seiler Graf, chairwoman of the National Council’s Security Policy Committee, publicly questioned whether the cost assumptions underpinning the deal were realistic, arguing that the pricing model for the F-35A was probably not applicable to later production lots. Her intervention signalled that the National Council would scrutinise any attempt to stretch the budget or quietly reduce the fleet.
On the military side, senior officers have been tasked with explaining how a smaller fleet can still deliver credible defence. The Commander of the Swiss Air Force, Major General Peter Merz, has been a prominent figure in that effort, outlining how training, basing and maintenance concepts might adapt if fewer jets are delivered. Reporting that features the Indeed remarks by Priska Seiler Graf and separate coverage of the Commander of the Swiss Air Force Major General Peter Merz show how civilian scepticism and military pragmatism are now intersecting as the country recalibrates its ambitions.
Air2030, Western modernisation and the fragility of high-end rearmament
The F-35 cutback is not an isolated procurement tweak, it is a stress test for Switzerland’s broader Air2030 modernisation agenda and, by extension, for Western airpower planning. Air2030 was designed as a comprehensive refresh of air defence, combining new fighters, ground-based systems and command networks into a single, coherent package. The assumption was that a full-strength F-35 fleet would sit at the centre of that architecture, providing stealth, sensor fusion and interoperability with NATO neighbours.
By trimming the order, Switzerland is exposing how vulnerable such grand designs are to cost shocks in a single platform. Analysts now warn that fewer jets could limit surge capacity, complicate maintenance rotations and reduce the margin for attrition over the aircrafts’ service life. A detailed examination of the procurement crisis argues that Switzerland Slashes its Order as Cost Overruns Expose Fragility of Western Airpower Modernisation, highlighting how Air2030 and the search for long term economic returns are now being recalibrated in light of the reduced fleet.
From $1.6 Billion hikes to 35 jets: what the numbers say
Strip away the political rhetoric and the story comes down to a handful of hard figures. The original plan called for 36 aircraft, but a US-driven increase of up to $1.6 in procurement costs has forced Bern to accept that it will not purchase all of them. Government statements now consistently reference a likely fleet closer to 35 jets, a compromise that tries to preserve capability while absorbing the financial shock. The gap between 36 and 35 may look small on paper, but in a tightly planned force structure it can mean fewer aircraft available for training, maintenance cover and surge operations.
International reporting has framed the shift as a textbook case of how export customers are squeezed when prime contractors and the US government adjust pricing. One detailed account notes that Swiss officials decided to Buy Fewer US jets After a $1.6 Billion Price Hike, while domestic coverage stresses that the government will not purchase all 36 American F-35 fighter jets originally planned and is instead working with a revised figure of 35. That recalibration is echoed in Swiss radio reports that Govt sources now expect Switzerland to field between 36 and 35 aircraft, with the lower number increasingly likely as cost projections harden.
Public accountability and the risk of a renewed political fight
Because the F-35 deal was anchored in a referendum, any significant deviation from the original terms carries political risk. Opponents of the jet, who lost that vote, now argue that the government is delivering less capability for more money, and that the public should have a fresh say if the package changes materially. Supporters counter that the mandate was to modernise air defence within a fixed budget, and that adjusting the fleet size to stay inside that envelope is precisely what voters endorsed.
The Federal Council has tried to navigate that tension by keeping the door open to further parliamentary and possibly popular scrutiny. Official communications emphasise that the government wants to buy fewer F-35 fighter jets due to additional costs, and that the final configuration may still be shaped by the legislature and, if necessary, by the people. Coverage of the debate notes that Get the most important news from Switzerland and you will find repeated references to the possibility that the project could be revisited, or even challenged again, if cost growth continues.
A cautionary tale for small states buying into big programmes
For other small and medium sized countries eyeing the F-35 or similar high end systems, Switzerland’s experience is a warning about the limits of national control in global defence programmes. Even a state with a strong currency, a reputation for fiscal prudence and a clear democratic mandate can find itself forced to cut back when supplier side costs spike. The Swiss case shows that locking in a fleet size on paper is no guarantee that the same number of jets will eventually arrive on the tarmac.
At the same time, Bern’s response illustrates one way to manage the shock: protect the budget ceiling, accept a modest reduction in numbers, and push industry and partners to deliver as much capability as possible within the revised plan. As further details emerge about how Switzerland balances its American commitments with domestic expectations, other buyers will be watching closely, calculators in hand, to see whether a 35 jet fleet can truly deliver what a 36-unit plan once promised.
Supporting sources: Switzerland to trim F-35A purchase, with cost rises leaving 36 ….
More from MorningOverview