Quantum computing has moved from whiteboards to Wall Street, and few names capture that shift more starkly than D-Wave Quantum and Rigetti Computing. Both promise to turn exotic physics into commercial products, yet their technologies, business models, and risk profiles diverge sharply. For investors trying to decide which could be the stronger quantum bet in 2026, the choice comes down to how much speculative upside they want to trade for near term traction.
I see D-Wave Quantum as the more grounded pick, with a clearer commercialization path and growing analyst support, while Rigetti offers higher theoretical upside but faces sharper execution and valuation risks. The gap between them is widening as contracts, price targets, and performance expectations stack up on one side more than the other.
Two very different quantum bets
D-Wave Quantum has built its reputation around quantum annealing, a specialized architecture that excels at optimization problems rather than general purpose computing. Reporting describes Wave as best known for this approach, while it also begins to pursue a more traditional, error correcting, gate based system to broaden its addressable market. That dual track strategy is reinforced by commentary that Wave is simultaneously commercializing annealing and investing in gate based research, effectively hedging its own technology roadmap.
Rigetti Computing, by contrast, has gone all in on gate based superconducting qubits, aiming squarely at the long term vision of universal quantum computers. Analysts note that Rigetti Computing is pursuing a hybrid quantum classical architecture and has worked with the U.S. Air Force, positioning itself as a government and cloud partner rather than a hardware vendor. That ambition has made Rigetti one of the most visible pure plays in the space, but it also means the company is more exposed to the slow, uncertain march toward fault tolerant machines than a specialist like D-Wave.
Technology, speed and real world traction
On raw performance, Rigetti’s systems have some clear strengths. Coverage of Rigetti Computing notes that while IonQ’s approach has taken the lead in fidelity, Rigetti Computing (NASDAQ: RGTI) systems are much faster, giving the company a potential edge in workloads where speed trumps error rates. That same analysis highlights how Rigetti Computing, NASDAQ, and RGTI are trying to carve out a differentiated position in a field where Two of IonQ (IONQ 7.46 percent) and Rigetti Computing (RGTI 8.69 percent) are already seen as early movers, with Both of these stocks volatile and speculative for long term investors who accept 7.46 percent and 8.69 percent daily swings as part of the ride.
D-Wave’s traction looks different, and arguably more tangible. One assessment points out that Wave Quantum (NYSE: QBTS) is tackling quantum computing from two different angles, leading in quantum annealing while also working on gate based systems that are less error prone. Another report explains that Wave plans a picks and shovels approach, selling pre built quantum annealing devices and cloud access rather than betting everything on a single breakthrough. That strategy is already showing up in contracts and pilot deployments, with Quantum computing still largely tied to research partnerships and pilot deployments according to analysis of Quantum stocks in 2026.
Wall Street’s verdict so far
Market sentiment has tilted decisively toward D-Wave as 2026 gets underway. One forecast argues that Prediction is that D-Wave Quantum Could Soar 80% in 2026, a bold call that sits alongside market moves where AMZN gained 0.39%, AMD rose 1.72%, PEP slipped 0.17%, COST added 0.72%, and ADBE fell 2.62% on the same day. Another note goes further, with Wall Street Analysts 92% in 2026 if D-Wave’s momentum from 2025 carries into this year and its annealing and gate based solutions continue to improve.
That optimism is not just theoretical. Data from intellectia shows D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) shares have surged 211%, outpacing major indices, while a separate note highlights Rosenblatt, Buy, Al Analysis, Reason, Price Target moves where $40 and $43 targets were discussed for quantum names. At the same time, commentary on Government Buys Stakes notes that so far in 2026, D-Wave (QBTS) has popped about 18%, while At Wedbush, analyst Daniel Ives has speculated that IonQ and Rigetti Computing (RGTI) could even see the U.S. Government Buys Stakes in strategic quantum players.
Rigetti’s mixed signals: upside and warnings
Rigetti’s story is more conflicted. On one hand, coverage of Rigetti Computing, RGTI, Stock, Rosenblatt, Buy Rating and Price Target Analysis highlights a $40 target based on Analysis of its technology and cloud accessibility, suggesting substantial upside from current levels. Another note on RGTI reiterates that $40 target and emphasizes how Rigetti’s systems are accessible via major cloud platforms, which could help it scale once enterprise demand materializes. In the same vein, a comparison of Rigetti vs D-Wave Quantum asks Which Quantum Stock Is the Smarter Bet and notes that while D-Wave offers near term commercialization, Rigetti might have a slight edge in long term upside if universal gate based systems win out.
On the other hand, several analysts are sounding alarms. A stark note titled Prediction says Rigetti Computing Stock Is Going to Plunge in 2026, arguing that Rigetti stock trades at a valuation that looks ludicrous in its own right given current revenues. Another warning from As of the closing bell on Jan. 6 notes that price to sales ratios for IonQ, Rigetti, and D-Wave are deep into historical bubble territory, underscoring how quickly sentiment could reverse. That risk is already visible in coverage of rigetti suffers setback, where Barron and Wave are mentioned in the context of delays and a Nasdaq Composite that was down 1.2% while D-Wave made strides.
Why D-Wave looks like the stronger 2026 pick
When I weigh the evidence, D-Wave’s combination of niche leadership, growing contracts, and supportive forecasts makes it the more compelling quantum stock for 2026. Multiple comparative pieces, including one that explicitly states Of the two, I prefer D-Wave, argue that Of the two, Wave has carved out a niche in quantum annealing that is already starting to be commercialized. That verdict is echoed in parallel coverage where Of the two, I prefer D-Wave is repeated and Wave again comes out ahead on near term metrics. A separate analysis of Key Points notes that Wave is a leader in quantum annealing and that Rigetti’s metrics have fallen behind competitors, reinforcing the idea that D-Wave is executing more consistently.
That relative strength shows up across the broader quantum landscape. A rundown of Best Quantum Computing to Buy for 2026 includes D-Wave alongside larger names, arguing that Quantum computing is no longer just a distant scientific concept but a strategic technology that could help create the most valuable company in the world. Another survey of Best Quantum Computing again highlights Buy for 2026 and Quantum as themes, with D-Wave positioned as a way to gain exposure without betting solely on long term, unproven architectures. Even pieces that caution about hype, such as one arguing that quantum computing pure plays have seen Outsized momentum and that Key Points around Quantum stocks resemble the “Magnificent Seven” right now, still treat D-Wave as a core holding in the sector according to Key Points on billionaire interest.
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