Astronomers are closing in on what looks like a rare prize: a world almost the size of Earth, circling a Sun-like star at a distance that gives it a familiar, year-long orbit. The candidate, known as HD 137010 b, sits roughly the same distance from its star as our planet does from the Sun and appears only slightly larger than Earth. The twist is that this possible twin may be far colder than home, and there is a real chance it is not a planet at all but a statistical mirage buried in noisy data.
The discovery has ignited excitement because it checks several boxes that planet hunters have chased for decades: Earth-like size, an orbit near the habitable zone and a host star that looks much like our own. Yet the same measurements that make HD 137010 b so intriguing also make it hard to confirm, leaving scientists in the uncomfortable position of having a potentially historic find that they may never be able to prove beyond doubt.
What astronomers think they have found
From the first reports, HD 137010 b stands out as a near match to our planet in broad strokes. The candidate orbits a Sun-like star and is estimated to be only slightly larger than Earth, putting it firmly in the “terrestrial” category rather than among the gas giants that dominate many exoplanet catalogs. Early analyses suggest it completes an orbit in roughly a year and sits at a distance from its star where, in principle, liquid water could exist on the surface, given the right atmosphere, which is why some researchers describe it as a potentially habitable Earth-sized planet in the making. Those basic parameters are laid out in mission notes that describe the object as an ice-cold Earth candidate.
Several teams have converged on similar numbers for the system, reinforcing the sense that this is not just another hot, bloated world hugging its star. One report describes how Astronom and colleagues identified HD 137010 b as a new Earth-sized planet candidate in a region where liquid water could exist, while an international science team, working through a major observatory in Heidelberg, detailed the same object as part of a broader search for small worlds around Sun-like stars. In technical terms, the signal looks like a planet that tugs gently on its star in a way consistent with a rocky body only a bit larger than Earth, on a wide, temperate orbit.
The “ice-cold” catch
The apparent similarity to Earth hides a crucial difference that shapes how I interpret the discovery. The host star of HD 137010 b seems to be somewhat dimmer than the Sun, which means that even at an Earth-like distance, the planet would receive less energy than our world does. That is why mission scientists describe the candidate as an “ice-cold Earth,” a world that might match our planet in size and orbital period but sit under a much weaker stellar lamp. In that scenario, the surface could be locked in deep freeze, with any water frozen solid despite the comfortable-sounding orbit, a point underscored in the official Discovery Alert for HD 137010 b.
Other coverage of the system reaches the same conclusion: the orbit may be “just right” on paper, but the climate is probably not. One detailed summary notes that the surface of this possible Earth-sized world could be extremely cold, even with a year-long orbit around a Sun-like star, because the overall energy budget is lower than Earth’s. That assessment is echoed in a report on an Earth-sized world in a rare year-long orbit about 146 light years from Earth, where researchers warn that the surface could be extremely cold despite the superficially familiar configuration. The twist, then, is that the most Earth-like orbit yet found around a Sun-like star may lead not to a blue marble but to a frozen desert.
A nearby, faint signal in a crowded sky
Part of what makes HD 137010 b so tantalizing is its relative proximity. Reports place the system at about 146 light years from Earth, close enough in galactic terms that future telescopes might, in principle, study its atmosphere if the planet is real. One account from ISTANBUL describes how Astronomers spotted a new Earth-sized planet near the habitable zone 146 light-year away, orbiting a Sun-like star and raising hopes that it could be one of the best analogues to our own world. Another report on an Earth-sized world discovered in a rare year-long orbit also fixes the distance at 146, reinforcing that this is a relatively nearby neighborhood in the Milky Way.
Yet that same proximity does not make the signal easy to read. The planet’s small size and wide orbit mean it blocks only a tiny fraction of its star’s light, and it does so infrequently, which makes the data sparse and noisy. One detailed account from ISTANBUL notes that the transit signal is many times fainter than those of the hot, close-in planets that dominate earlier surveys, a point highlighted in a focused description of how ISTANBUL-based researchers characterized the detection. In practice, that means astronomers are trying to tease out a whisper of a signal from a star that flickers for many other reasons, from magnetic activity to instrumental noise.
Why some scientists fear a “blip in the data”
The difficulty of the measurement is at the heart of the twist that gives HD 137010 b its uncertain status. Several researchers have warned that the candidate might be an illusion created by the way the data were processed, rather than a real planet. One in-depth analysis describes how astronomers think they have found an exoplanet called HD 137010 b that may share many of Earth’s features, if it is really there, but also stresses that the signal is right at the edge of what current instruments can reliably detect. That tension is captured in a discussion of whether this is another Earth or a blip in the data, where the uncertainty is framed as a central part of the story rather than a footnote.
Other commentators go further, arguing that we may never get a definitive answer. One detailed feature notes that follow-up observations will be extremely difficult, to say the least, because the planet’s long orbital period and faint signal make it hard to catch repeated transits with enough precision to rule out false positives. That skepticism is echoed in a separate analysis that focuses on how an Artist’s concept of the planet is already circulating even though its very existence remains in doubt. As I read those accounts, the message is clear: HD 137010 b sits at the frontier where our desire to find another Earth runs up against the limits of our instruments and statistical methods.
How this fits into the broader hunt for other Earths
Whether HD 137010 b is ultimately confirmed or not, it slots into a broader pattern in exoplanet science. Over the past decade, astronomers have steadily moved from finding large, hot planets to identifying smaller, cooler worlds that look more like home. Australian teams, for example, have reported a possibly habitable “Earth-like” planet about 150 light-years away, discovered using data from the 2017 Kepler extended K2 mission, which shows how survey archives continue to yield new candidates long after the original observations. That work, described in detail in a report on a potentially habitable Earth-like planet, underscores how HD 137010 b is part of a growing family of small, temperate candidates that push current technology to its limits.
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