Two separate storm systems are expected to target the Great Lakes and Northeast from Thursday into early next week, bringing a combination of snow, ice, and rain that could disrupt travel and daily life across a wide swath of the eastern United States. The back-to-back timing of these systems raises the prospect of prolonged winter weather impacts, with the second storm’s track still carrying meaningful uncertainty. For residents from the Ohio Valley to New England, the week ahead demands close attention to evolving forecasts and a willingness to adjust plans as new information emerges.
While each storm on its own might resemble a typical late-winter system, their rapid succession means impacts could compound. Snowpack laid down by the first event could influence temperatures near the surface, affect how the second storm’s precipitation type plays out, and contribute to runoff if a period of milder air and rain follows. Emergency managers and transportation officials will be watching not just individual snowfall totals but how these storms interact with each other over several days.
Colorado Low Kicks Off the First Round
The opening act in this week’s storm sequence is a surface low developing over eastern Colorado that will track into the Midwest and Great Lakes, spreading precipitation into the Ohio Valley and Northeast. That trajectory, outlined in the Weather Prediction Center’s extended medium-range discussion issued on February 16, sets up the first notable winter weather event of the period. The forecast is valid from Thursday, February 19 through Monday, February 23, meaning this system will dominate the weather picture for much of the workweek and influence conditions ahead of the second storm.
What makes this storm worth watching is not just its snow and ice potential but the rainfall it will also generate. Additional energy along the system’s cold front is expected to bring moderate rainfall into the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic, creating a split personality for the storm. Areas north of the rain–snow line could see plowable accumulations, while communities to the south could face a different but still disruptive set of problems tied to periods of heavier rain and localized flooding concerns. The mid-level pattern of troughs and ridges visible in the WPC’s 500-millibar height forecast confirms that the atmospheric setup supports this kind of multi-track storm evolution, with more than one shortwave expected to influence the region during the forecast window.
A Second System Adds Complexity and Risk
The first storm will not operate in isolation. The WPC’s 5-day surface forecast depicts separate surface lows and fronts expected to affect the Great Lakes and then the Northeast in sequence, underscoring that a second, distinct system will follow on the heels of the Colorado low. This second system is the one that introduces the most uncertainty into the week’s forecast. Its exact track, particularly whether it consolidates inland or develops along the coast, will determine how much additional snow and ice New England receives versus how much falls as rain. The WPC’s CONUS-wide surface frontal depiction shows distinct boundaries associated with each low, reinforcing that these are genuinely separate weather-makers rather than a single prolonged event.
The consecutive nature of these storms is what elevates the threat beyond a routine winter weather week. When two systems pass through the same corridor within days of each other, the cumulative effects on snowpack, river levels, and infrastructure stress can exceed what either storm would produce alone. Cold air damming in the Northeast, reinforced by the first system, could lock in subfreezing temperatures at the surface even as warmer air rides above it during the second storm. That layering effect can increase the chance of freezing rain and ice accumulation, which can be damaging to power lines and tree limbs and may increase the risk of power outages.
Forecast Confidence and Where It Breaks Down
Forecasters are expressing measured confidence about the broad outlines of this pattern while acknowledging real limits on the details. The WPC’s Day 4 through 7 winter weather outlook, which is probability-based, indicates that plowable snow and ice are most likely across the Great Lakes and Northeast during that window. However, the same product flags notable uncertainty near the coast and its implications for New England. A slight shift in the second storm’s track could mean the difference between a high-impact coastal storm and a system that stays far enough offshore to limit the heaviest precipitation on land, and model guidance at this range can struggle with such fine-scale differences.
The Climate Prediction Center’s Week-2 Hazards Outlook, valid February 20 through 26, adds a longer view. It identifies a slight risk of heavy snow across portions of the Northern Plains, Upper Mississippi Valley, and Great Lakes for February 20 through 22, signaling that the storminess affecting the Great Lakes is not a one-off event but part of a broader pattern-level tendency toward active weather in the region. In its hazard-focused outlook discussion, the CPC describes large-scale troughing and ridging over North America that supports multiple storm systems affecting the Great Lakes and Northeast, with model agreement reinforcing the general trend even as individual storm details remain fluid and subject to change over the coming days.
Measuring Severity Beyond Snowfall Totals
One tool that will help communities gauge the real-world impact of these storms is the Winter Storm Severity Index, or WSSI, maintained by the National Weather Service. The WSSI uses impact categories ranging from “minor” to “extreme” and draws on data from the National Digital Forecast Database along with non-meteorological and climatological inputs, according to NOAA’s technical documentation for the index. That blended approach means the index accounts for factors like population density, local infrastructure, and regional preparedness, not just raw precipitation amounts or wind speeds.
Because of that design, a six-inch snowfall in Buffalo, where plows and salt trucks are a fact of life, can register differently on the WSSI than the same amount in a mid-Atlantic city with fewer resources and less experience handling winter storms. The WSSI also incorporates elements such as blowing and drifting snow, ground blizzard potential, and the likelihood of hazardous travel, offering a more holistic view of storm severity. For decision-makers, that can be more actionable than a simple snowfall forecast, helping them prioritize where to pre-position crews, how aggressively to treat roads, and whether to consider school or event closures as the storms approach.
Dual Hazards: Snow, Ice, and Flooding Rain
The WPC’s medium-range hazards outlook for Days 3 through 7 flags both winter weather and excessive rainfall threats for the Great Lakes and Northeast, emphasizing that no single hazard tells the full story. In its overview of upcoming storm-related threats, the center highlights the potential for heavy snow and ice in the colder sector of these systems and pockets of heavy rain where warmer air dominates. That dual designation is notable because it means the same region could face snow and ice from one storm and flooding rain from the next, or even a mix within a single event depending on temperature profiles and the precise placement of frontal boundaries.
These overlapping hazards raise concerns about river and urban flooding, particularly if the first storm lays down a substantial snowpack that is then subjected to rain and above-freezing temperatures. Snowmelt combined with new rainfall can quickly swell streams and rivers, while clogged storm drains may lead to ponding on roads and in low-lying neighborhoods. Even in areas that remain mostly snow-covered, periods of mixed precipitation and freezing rain can create treacherous travel conditions and strain utilities. With back-to-back systems on the way, residents and local officials across the Great Lakes and Northeast will need to monitor forecasts closely, prepare for a range of possible impacts, and remain ready to adapt as the atmosphere determines exactly where snow, ice, and rain will fall.
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*This article was researched with the help of AI, with human editors creating the final content.
