Across the American West, the winter landscape that usually locks in the region’s water supply is vanishing in real time. Mountain snowpack has plunged to record or near record lows in several key basins, creating what scientists describe as a “snow drought” with cascading consequences for rivers, reservoirs, farms, cities, and wildfire risk later this year.
Instead of deep, lingering snow, many high elevations are seeing bare ground, thin crusts, or rain where snow once dominated. The pattern is especially stark in states that depend on mountain runoff to get through the dry season, raising urgent questions about how the West will cope if this kind of winter becomes the norm rather than the exception.
Record-low snowpack across the American West
By midwinter, snowpack across much of the American West is typically building toward its seasonal peak, but this year it has collapsed to record lows in basin after basin. A detailed analysis of mountain measurements shows that mid Jan snowpack is at record-low levels across large parts of the American West, even though total precipitation has not been historically low. The problem is that much of that moisture has fallen as rain instead of snow, a shift that scientists tie directly to record warmth.
Federal monitoring underscores how widespread the problem has become. The national snow survey network now tracks how much water is stored in mountain snow at more than 80 basins across the Western United States, and this winter many of those basins are running far below average. A separate assessment of snow conditions across the region describes a developing “snow drought,” with Snow cover reduced and runoff timing already shifting in ways that complicate water planning. The Western U.S. is suffering a severe deficit in mountain snow, and that shortfall is expected to translate into major water supply issues and heightened wildfire risks by summer, according to a regional overview of The Western snow drought.
Colorado and Utah: Ground zero for the snow drought
In the central Rockies, the numbers are stark. In Colorado, statewide snowpack has slumped to record lows even after a recent winter storm briefly freshened ski slopes. One detailed forecast notes that the weekend system nudged snowpack up, but only from deeply depressed levels, with statewide values climbing from 57% of median to slightly higher, still far below what water managers expect at this point in winter. Another regional report, titled “Colorado Snowpack Remains at Record Lows Despite Recent Winter Storm,” underscores that Colorado Snowpack Remains at historically low levels and is likely to stay that way in the short term.
The human and economic stakes are already visible. Low snow is hurting the state’s outdoor recreation economy, with ski areas and winter tourism businesses reporting thinner bookings and shorter seasons as a result of the Jan snow deficit. Fire planners in the state warn that the lack of a robust snowpack could set the stage for more intense wildfire activity later this year, since less meltwater will soak into soils and forests before the hot season. Looking ahead, one analysis by By Spencer McKee suggests that Colorado’s snowpack could remain stuck near record lows into late February if storm tracks do not shift, a scenario that would further strain both water supplies and the ski industry.
To the west, Utah is facing a similar crunch. State hydrologists describe Winter 2026 as a season that started with a wet October but then stalled, with the 2026 Water Year seeing higher precipitation early on while October, followed by much drier November and December. A statewide assessment of snowpack in Utah reports that the snow drought continues with little relief in sight through the end of Jan, with Adam Lenkowski noting that the statewide snowpack is lagging badly despite a few isolated storms. That report, which highlights a Photo of Statewide snowpack conditions, underscores that the Published analysis and Last update, marked by the figures 45 and 59, capture a situation that has only grown more concerning as January draws to a close.
California’s thin snowpack and the shift from snow to rain
Farther west, the Sierra Nevada, long known as California’s frozen reservoir, is also running low on snow. Early in the season, a manual survey in the mountains found that the statewide snowpack stood at 71 percent of average, with the survey team recording 24 inches of snow depth and a snow water equivalent of 5 inches, according to a detailed survey conducted in Dec. Since then, persistent warmth has eroded that cushion. At UC Berkeley’s Central Sierra Snow Laboratory, scientists report that, as of Jan 23, the snowpack was only 61% of average for this time of year, a shortfall they directly link to record warmth in the mid wet season 2026.
Recent storms have done little to change the overall picture. A fast moving system delivered what is likely to be the final rainfall of January in Northern California, dropping modest rain and snow totals but not enough to rebuild a robust mountain snowpack. Satellite imagery from The National Aeronautics and Space Administration shows the extent of the deficit, with NASA describing the current winter in the West as a “snow drought” in which many peaks that are usually white in January now appear brown or lightly dusted. The broader context is a warming climate that is turning more winter storms into rain events, a pattern that is especially troubling in California, where snowmelt historically feeds major reservoirs well into summer.
Why warmth, not just dryness, is driving this snow drought
What makes this winter so alarming is that it is not simply a case of missing storms. Across the region, scientists emphasize that record warmth is the key driver turning a wet pattern into a snow drought. A detailed thread on mid Jan conditions notes that Mid winter snowpack is at record lows across much of the American West, yet it has not been a record dry winter, with the author stressing that the culprit is Record warmth rather than a complete lack of precipitation. A national climate update on snow drought in the West similarly highlights how Shifts in the timing and amount of snowmelt or runoff are emerging as temperatures rise, with Snow cover shrinking and dry conditions spreading across the region even when storms do arrive.
Researchers who study mountain climate say this winter fits a pattern they have warned about for years. One leading scientist, Jan Mote of the Cooperative Institute for Climate, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, explains that some areas west of the Cascade crest, which runs up the spine of Washington and Oregon, could still recover if a few big storms hit before spring. But he also warns that warmer winters mean more water will run off earlier in the year than is actually available for summer use, a dynamic that leaves reservoirs and ecosystems stressed even in years that are not technically dry. A broader overview of the Western United States snow drought notes that the reasons for the snowpack drought vary by region, but across the West, temperatures have been uncommonly warm this winter, a point underscored in a Jan analysis of the Jan snow season.
Water, wildfire, and the Colorado River’s uncertain future
The consequences of this thin snow season will ripple far beyond ski resorts. Across the Western United States, the snowpack functions as a natural reservoir that slowly releases water into rivers and aquifers through spring and early summer. When that reservoir is depleted, cities, farms, and ecosystems all feel the strain. A comprehensive overview of snowpack conditions in the Western U.S. warns that low snow this winter could worsen drought conditions and fuel more severe wildfires later in the year, especially if hot, dry weather follows. The same assessment notes that the snow drought is already complicating forecasts for reservoir inflows, making it harder for water managers to balance competing demands.
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