The United States has tightened its grip on Europe’s gas market, capturing roughly 60% of the continent’s liquefied natural gas imports in January after a surge in shipments during a cold snap. That jump from around 56% in 2025 underscores how central American cargoes have become to Europe’s energy security, even as policymakers fret about swapping one dependency for another. The shift is reshaping global gas flows, pricing power and the geopolitics of the post‑Russian pipeline era.
Behind the headline figure lies a mix of weather, infrastructure and policy choices that have pushed Europe deeper into the LNG era. I see three big questions emerging: how sustainable this level of U.S. dominance really is, what it means for Europe’s strategy to move beyond Russian supplies, and how both sides manage the political risk of a relationship that now runs through every LNG tanker docking in European ports.
How the U.S. grabbed 60% of Europe’s LNG market
Europe’s gas system entered the winter leaning heavily on seaborne cargoes, and January’s cold weather simply amplified that reliance. As temperatures dropped, gas demand climbed and LNG imports rose, with shipments from the United States taking a dominant share of the incremental volumes. Analysts tracking flows reported that U.S. exporters supplied about 60% of Europe’s LNG in January, up from around 56% in 2025, a striking gain in a market that was already heavily tilted toward American gas.
The scale of that shift is captured in a widely shared image of a Model of LNG tanker set against the EU flag, a visual shorthand for how central imported cargoes have become to the bloc’s energy mix. Reporting on the January numbers, By Kate Abnett noted that U.S. volumes climbed from around 56% in 2025 to roughly 60% in January, a gain that reflects both strong American export capacity and Europe’s willingness to pay for security of supply. The fact that this happened in a single winter month underlines how quickly market shares can move when weather and infrastructure line up.
Cold weather, tight balances and a fragile supply chain
The immediate catalyst for the January surge was the weather. Higher gas demand driven by cold conditions pushed European buyers to pull more from storage and to step up spot purchases of LNG, with a particular focus on flexible Atlantic Basin cargoes. That scramble helped lift the U.S. share of imports, as Higher winter consumption met a fleet of tankers able to reroute quickly toward European terminals. But Kpler, which tracks ship movements, has stressed that the trend toward increasing U.S. dominance predates this cold spell and is likely to persist as long as Europe’s structural demand for LNG remains high.
Even so, the supply chain that delivered those volumes is more fragile than the headline suggests. In late January, U.S. LNG Feed Gas Deliveries Fall off Cliff as Operators Grapple With, with intake at liquefaction plants plunging as freezing temperatures disrupted operations. Every major U.S. LNG export facility was affected as the cold weather arrived, a reminder that even the world’s largest exporter is vulnerable to domestic shocks. For European buyers, that episode is a warning that relying on a single region for marginal supply can backfire if extreme weather hits both sides of the Atlantic at once.
Europe’s record LNG appetite and the post‑Russian era
Europe’s pivot to LNG is not a one‑winter story, it is a structural response to the loss of Russian pipeline gas after the invasion of Ukraine. The International Energy Agency expects Europe to import a record volume of LNG this year, with global supply also expanding as new projects ramp up. That forecast reflects both the permanent damage to Russian pipeline flows and the build‑out of regasification capacity across the continent, from floating terminals in Germany to expanded facilities in Spain and the Netherlands.
In LONDON, analysts note that Europe has booked enough import capacity to handle the record LNG volumes the IEA projects, but that does not mean the system is comfortable. The report warns that high demand and tight balances will require continued energy security vigilance, particularly if Asian buyers step up competition for cargoes. In that context, the U.S. share of 60% in January looks less like an outlier and more like the logical outcome of a market where Russian pipeline gas has been structurally replaced by Atlantic Basin LNG.
Storage, prices and the risk of slower U.S. flows
Europe’s gas storage is draining as winter progresses, yet prices have not fully reflected the potential risk. Traders have taken comfort from the steady stream of LNG cargoes, with the chilled fuel repeatedly coming to THE RESCUE when pipeline supplies falter. Indeed the role of LNG in Europe’s gas market has grown so pivotal that some analysts argue storage levels matter less than the availability of prompt cargoes and regasification slots. Yet the same analysis warns that a sharp 50% jump in prices from current levels is still possible if supply tightens or if a late‑season cold snap collides with outages.
One near‑term risk is that U.S. shipments may slow just as Europe leans hardest on them. Market observers in the Market for Natural gas expect U.S. LNG deliveries to Europe to ease from around the second week of February, after weather‑related disruptions and maintenance at export facilities. That slowdown is likely to tighten Europe’s gas balance, particularly if storage withdrawals remain high. For traders, the combination of lower U.S. flows and still‑elevated demand is a recipe for more volatile prices into late winter.
Strategic dependence and Europe’s search for balance
Behind the market dynamics lies a deeper strategic concern in European capitals. Officials are increasingly wary that in solving the Russian problem they may be creating a new vulnerability to U.S. policy and pricing. A recent analysis of the bloc’s energy history notes that Europe‘s dependence on Russian energy grew from a “gas for pipelines” deal struck between West Germany and the Soviet Union in the 1970s, a relationship that eventually left the bloc exposed when Moscow turned off the taps. Policymakers now warn against putting “eggs in one basket” again, even if the new supplier is a close ally rather than a geopolitical rival.
That historical memory is shaping today’s diversification push. Brussels is encouraging more LNG contracts with Qatar and other Middle Eastern producers, backing additional interconnectors within the bloc, and accelerating investment in renewables and efficiency to cut overall gas demand. At the same time, commercial realities keep pulling buyers toward U.S. cargoes, which are often more flexible and competitively priced. The tension between strategic caution and market logic is visible in the way analysts talk about the January numbers: Higher gas demand driven by cold weather partly caused the uptick, But Kpler still expects the trend for increasing U.S. share to continue as long as Europe’s LNG appetite grows.
For Washington, the surge cements the country’s role as an energy superpower, with President Donald Trump presiding over a sector that now anchors Europe’s gas security. For Brussels, it is both a relief and a warning. The January spike to 60% U.S. share shows how quickly the transatlantic energy relationship has deepened, but it also highlights the urgency of building a more balanced mix of suppliers and accelerating the shift away from fossil fuels altogether. As the Natural gas market heads into the next winter planning cycle, both sides will be trying to lock in the benefits of this new era of LNG trade without repeating the mistakes of the Russian pipeline age.
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