The last binding limits on U.S. and Russian long range nuclear weapons are about to lapse, and the Kremlin is signaling it is prepared for that world. As President Donald Trump keeps his options open in public, Moscow is presenting itself as ready to move on without constraints, leaving the world’s two largest arsenals effectively unregulated at the strategic level. The result is a dangerous mix of legal vacuum, revived nuclear testing and political brinkmanship that I see pushing the global system back toward Cold War style risks.
The treaty clock runs out as Moscow waits and Washington hesitates
For more than a decade, the New START accord has capped deployed strategic warheads and launchers held by United States and, providing inspections and data exchanges that gave each side confidence about the other’s forces. That framework is now at its limit, since both governments agreed to extend the treaty only through early February 2026, and experts warn that decades of legally binding limits on global stockpiles will end on February 5. Analytical work on the Background of this regime notes that arsenals have already fallen from Cold War peaks to roughly 12,000 warheads, but without New START there will be no enforceable ceiling on how far they can climb again.
Officials in Russia have been explicit that they are waiting on Washington. In mid Jan, Russia publicly said it was awaiting a U.S. reply on the “important” question of what to do about the expiring treaty, stressing the risk of miscalculation in the event of a nuclear war and putting the onus on the White House to respond, according to reporting By Dmitry Antonov. A separate Explainer on what New START is and why its expiry matters underscores that this is the last Russia U.S. nuclear pact, so its end removes the final legal brake on strategic competition. From my vantage point, that combination of Russian readiness and American indecision is exactly what makes the current moment so volatile.
Trump’s silence, testing orders and Moscow’s calibrated response
President Donald Trump has sent mixed signals about whether he even wants to save the treaty architecture. In an interview with the New York Times in early Jan, Trump said of the U.S. Russia accord that “if it expires, it expires,” and argued that China, which he described as having the world’s fastest growing strategic nuclear force, should be part of any future framework, according to Trump. Analysts have framed this as a high stakes choice for the president as the final nuclear pact with Moscow expires, a dilemma detailed in coverage of his looming decision pact expires. Yet as the deadline has drawn closer, there has been little public movement from the White House, even as experts warn that on February 5 decades of limits will vanish, a point reinforced in the On February analysis.
That strategic ambiguity has unfolded alongside a dramatic shift on nuclear testing. On October 30, President Donald Trump directed the U.S. military to immediately resume nuclear weapons testing after a 33-year pause, a decision described in detail in a video examining whether Washington is resuming tests under false pretexts after a 33-year halt. In the wake of President Trump’s comments that the United States will be ramping up nuclear activities, national correspondent Kill Gaskins in Washington reported on how those remarks reverberated abroad, highlighting concerns that they could spur a new arms race in Washington. From my perspective, ordering tests while leaving treaty questions hanging sends a clear signal that Washington is prepared to compete technically even as it declines to clarify the legal framework.
Moscow has been quick to answer that signal. Coverage of the Kremlin’s reaction notes that Putin ordered Russia to resume nuclear testing after Trump’s announcement about renewed U.S. tests, with Fox News senior correspondent Benjamin warning that this could open the door “FOR DANGEROUS NEW ARMS RACE,” as described in reports on how Russia drawing up plans. A more detailed account explains that Putin ordered Russia to resume nuclear testing after Trump’s announcement, with Benjamin again underscoring the risk of a dangerous new arms race as Putin orders the move. In other words, it was Trump’s decision to restart U.S. testing, not any denuclearization plan, that triggered Russia’s preparations, a sequence that sharply raises the temperature on both sides.
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