North America’s power watchdog is warning that as fossil fuel plants retire faster than replacements come online, large portions of the grid could be pushed to the brink just as electricity demand surges. The alarm is not about a distant future, but about the coming decade, when data centers, electrified vehicles, and new industry are expected to collide with a shrinking fleet of coal and gas generators. At stake is whether the transition away from fossil fuels can be managed without exposing households and businesses to rolling outages.
The latest long term reliability assessments point to a widening gap between what the grid will be asked to deliver and what it is currently on track to provide. Regulators are effectively telling policymakers that the physics of the system are changing faster than the infrastructure, and that without a course correction, reliability risks will spread from a handful of stressed regions to much of the continent.
Regulator’s stark warning: demand up, firm capacity down
The North American Electric Reliability Corporation, or NERC, has put numbers to a problem grid operators have been hinting at for years: demand is climbing sharply while dependable generation is not keeping pace. In its latest long term work, NERC describes how peak electricity demand is expected to rise as new data centers, industrial loads, and electrified technologies connect to the system, a trend captured in a detailed forecast that shows a 24 percent jump in peak demand over the next decade. John Moura, NERC’s director of reliability assessment, has framed the challenge bluntly, saying the system is changing faster than the infrastructure needed to support it, a mismatch that leaves less margin for error when extreme weather or equipment failures hit.
At the same time, NERC’s Long Term Reliability Assessment, often referred to as the LTRA, projects a significant decline in existing fossil fueled capacity. The organization’s own LTRA suggests that existing fossil fueled capacity could fall by 21 gigawatts over the next decade, even as bulk power system demand rises. That combination, rising peaks and shrinking firm capacity, is what underpins the regulator’s warning that large swaths of the grid could face elevated risk of failure if the transition away from coal and gas is not matched by timely additions of new, dependable resources.
Where the grid is most exposed as fossil plants retire
The reliability concerns are not spread evenly. NERC’s analysis points to specific regions where the balance between supply and demand is already tight and could worsen as fossil units retire. A detailed assessment of the next ten years highlights that the North American electric grid is facing its most challenging resource outlook since 1995, with particular stress in areas that rely heavily on aging coal fleets and have struggled to build new transmission. Those regions are being asked to accommodate both the retirement of legacy plants and the rapid growth of variable renewables, often without enough firm backup.
Cooperative utilities that serve rural communities are sounding similar alarms. The National Rural Electric Cooperative Association, or NRECA, has issued a call for swift action to address what it describes as a worsening grid reliability outlook, warning that projected energy resource and transmission growth will not keep up with demand in parts of the Midwest, Mid Atlantic, and Northwest. In its statement, NRECA warns that these regions could face heightened risk of shortfalls if dispatchable plants close before new capacity and transmission lines are in place, a concern that dovetails with NERC’s broader warning that much of the grid is drifting into a more fragile state.
Industry backlash and the fight over fossil fuel retirements
Not surprisingly, the coal and mining sectors are seizing on NERC’s findings as evidence that the current pace of fossil fuel retirements is reckless. The National Mining Association, or NMA, has issued an NMA Statement on Alarming NERC Reliability Assessment that argues the regulator’s work confirms what miners have long warned: that shutting down coal plants too quickly threatens the ability of the grid to deliver power when people need it most. In a separate National Mining Association communication from WASHINGTON, the group’s president and CEO stresses that coal remains a critical source of around the clock electricity and contends that policies pushing rapid decarbonization are out of step with reliability realities.
Advocacy groups aligned with coal are going further, framing NERC’s latest work as proof of a full blown crisis. One prominent campaign argues that NERC confirms the crisis, pointing to the long term reliability assessment as evidence that the administration’s focus on accelerating the energy transition has outpaced the grid’s ability to adapt. From this perspective, the regulator’s warning that much of the grid risks failure as fossil fuels phase out is not just a technical finding, but a political indictment of current climate and energy policy.
Real world stress tests: Winter Storm Fern and worsening generation outlook
The debate over models and forecasts is being sharpened by real world events. When Winter Storm Fern swept across parts of the United States, it provided a live stress test of how the generating fleet performs under extreme conditions. NERC, which had already highlighted winter energy risks in its 2025 to 2026 Winter Reliability Assessment, is watching Fern as a real world assessment of whether the mix of coal, gas, nuclear, and renewables can keep up when temperatures plunge. Early indications from that event suggest that dispatchable plants again provided primary support during the storm, reinforcing NERC’s concern that losing too much of that capacity too quickly could leave the grid exposed during future cold snaps.
Separate analysis of future electricity needs is painting a similarly sobering picture. A new study of generation trends finds that electric generation ability is “worsening” in the United States, with the report warning that capacity margins could erode in the coming five years as retirements outpace additions. The Electric generation report underscores that this is not just a long term, abstract concern, but a near term risk that could materialize within a single planning cycle if current trajectories hold.
What a managed transition would actually require
For all the political heat around NERC’s findings, the underlying engineering challenge is straightforward: the grid needs enough firm, flexible capacity to meet demand in every hour, even as the resource mix shifts. NERC’s own projections show that while renewables and storage are growing, they are not yet replacing the reliability attributes of retiring fossil plants on a one for one basis, especially in regions with limited transmission. The regulator’s warning that Much of the grid risks failure in the years ahead as fossil fuels phase out is essentially a call to synchronize climate ambition with the practical timelines for building new plants, wires, and storage.
Industry groups are pushing for a slower pace of retirements, while clean energy advocates argue that the answer lies in accelerating investment in transmission, storage, and flexible demand rather than extending the life of aging coal units. NERC’s data, including the projected 21 gigawatt decline in fossil capacity and the 24 percent rise in peak demand, suggest that both sides are grappling with the same constraint: time. To avoid the scenario where huge chunks of the grid become vulnerable, policymakers will need to align permitting, market design, and reliability standards so that new resources are in place before old ones exit, rather than after the fact.
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