New data on global pollution strips away any illusion that the climate crisis is a diffuse, evenly shared problem. A remarkably small cluster of fossil fuel and cement producers is responsible for a huge share of the carbon dioxide heating the planet, and their names are now mapped in forensic detail. The list is short, the damage is vast, and the politics around these firms are shaping whether the world can actually phase out fossil fuels.
Instead of a faceless “humanity” driving global warming, the evidence points to a tight group of corporate and state actors that have profited from carbon while delaying the transition away from it. Understanding who they are, how they operate, and how their power can be constrained is central to any honest conversation about climate responsibility.
The Carbon Majors and a shrinking circle of culprits
The starting point for this reckoning is the long running effort to trace emissions back to the companies that extract and sell fossil fuels. The Carbon Majors database compiles detailed records of oil, gas, coal and cement producers, turning abstract gigatons of CO2 into a ledger of corporate and state responsibility. A study published in Nature examined emissions from exactly 180 Carbon Majors and linked their pollution to hundreds of intensified heatwaves, including events in North America and the 2023 European heatwaves. That work makes clear that climate impacts can be traced back, with scientific rigor, to specific producers rather than to an undifferentiated global public.
Building on that database, a new analysis of 2024 data finds that just 32 fossil fuel companies were responsible for half of global CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and cement. Those 32 entities account for half of the emissions tracked in the database, a concentration of power and pollution that is hard to overstate. Earlier work had already shown how skewed responsibility is: one widely cited investigation found that Just 57 companies were linked to 80% of greenhouse gas emissions since 2016, based on an Analysis compiled by world‑renowned researchers. The new numbers tighten the focus even further.
State giants dominate the pollution leaderboard
When I look at who sits atop this list, one pattern jumps out: state ownership. The latest breakdown shows that the five largest emitters overall were Saudi Arabia‘s Aramco, Coal India, China’s CHN Energy, National Iranian Oil Co. and Russia’s Gazprom. These are not marginal players, they are central pillars of national economies and foreign policy. A separate ranking of the world’s top polluters in 2024 similarly lists Saudi Aramco, Coal Energy (owned by China) and other state‑backed producers as the heaviest emitters of fossil fuel and cement CO2. The destructive linchpin of this pollution is controlled by a tiny group of state‑based companies, with Aramco just one of them.
These firms are not only emitting at scale, they are also shaping global climate diplomacy. Reporting on the latest climate talks describes how Many state‑owned fossil fuel companies that polluted the most in 2024 went on to block a fossil fuel phaseout roadmap at COP, keeping the world on the “wrong side of history” in the words of campaigners. Another assessment notes that Most of the top 20 emitters accused of “sabotaging climate action” are state‑owned oil, gas, coal and cement producers, and those same governments resisted a fossil fuel phaseout at COP30 in Brazil. In other words, the countries with the most to lose in terms of stranded assets are using their political clout to slow the very transition their own companies make more urgent.
Investor-owned companies are not off the hook
It would be a mistake, though, to treat this as a story only about national oil companies. Investor‑owned firms still account for a large slice of historical and current emissions, and they remain deeply embedded in global capital markets. One detailed breakdown of the Carbon Majors database notes that private companies are responsible for 38% of emissions in the database, while state‑owned entities account for the rest, a split highlighted in an essay urging readers to stop blaming a handful of firms and instead change demand for fossil fuels produced by nation‑states and their companies. That same commentary, by Lloyd Alter, argues that focusing only on corporate villains risks obscuring the role of consumers and the political systems that enable continued fossil fuel use.
Recent emissions trends also show a divergence between public and private producers. Between 2023 and 2024, Between state‑owned companies, 38 increased their emissions while 29 reduced them, according to a detailed breakdown of the Carbon Majors data, whereas investor‑owned firms saw a more mixed pattern, with some majors cutting back and others, such as ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips, still ranking high on the list of polluters over that period. Another examination of the same dataset notes that emissions from many state‑owned oil, gas, coal and cement producers have primarily grown in recent years, even as some investor‑owned firms have begun to plateau or slightly decline, a trend highlighted in coverage of global Climate Change emissions. The upshot is that while state giants dominate the top of the table, investor‑owned companies remain central to both the problem and any credible solution.
From numbers to accountability: law, finance and diplomacy
Once responsibility is quantified this precisely, the question becomes what to do with it. Campaigners argue that the new analysis of the 32 biggest emitters should feed directly into legal and diplomatic strategies. Tzeporah Berman, who leads the Fossil Fuel Non Proliferation Treaty Initiative, has described the findings as proof that a small group of companies is “sabotaging climate action and weakening government ambition.” The Carbon Majors work is already being cited in lawsuits that seek to hold producers financially liable for climate damages, and in calls for windfall taxes on the profits of the most polluting firms. It also strengthens the case for a formal treaty to cap fossil fuel production, modeled loosely on agreements that limited nuclear weapons.
Financial pressure is another front. The revelation that Just 32 companies produced half of fossil fuel and cement CO2 in 2024 gives investors and banks a clear target list for engagement, divestment or both. Some of these firms, such as Aramco, are already under scrutiny from sovereign wealth funds and pension plans that have adopted climate mandates. Others, including major coal producers and cement manufacturers, have flown under the radar despite their outsized impact. As more asset managers integrate climate risk into their models, the concentration of emissions in a tiny set of firms makes it harder to argue that portfolios can stay diversified while remaining heavily exposed to these polluters.
Why focusing on a tiny list still means changing everything
There is a risk in turning this short list of companies into a convenient scapegoat. As Lloyd Alter points out, we have to stop buying what they are selling if emissions are to fall at the speed required, and that means transforming energy systems, transport, buildings and food, not just suing oil majors. The earlier finding that 57 companies were linked to 80% of greenhouse gas emissions since 2016, based on Just one comprehensive dataset, already sparked a debate about whether focusing on producers lets consumers and governments off the hook. The new 32‑company figure sharpens that tension. It shows that a handful of corporations and state entities are structurally central to the problem, but it does not erase the fact that their business model persists because societies still build highways, buy SUVs and subsidize fossil fuel use.
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