For decades, American war planners assumed that in any conflict with China, US jets would quickly seize control of the skies. That assumption is now in doubt as Beijing fields a web of long range missiles, stealth aircraft, drones and sensors designed to keep US forces at arm’s length. The most alarming shift is that China is no longer just contesting the airspace above its coast, it is building tools that could overturn US air superiority across the wider Indo Pacific.
What is emerging is not a single wonder weapon but a layered system that targets US aircraft, bases and the networks that connect them. I see a pattern in the reporting that points to a deliberate strategy: make it too dangerous, too costly and too uncertain for Washington to rely on the air dominance that has underpinned its power projection since the end of the Cold War.
From A2/AD to outright denial of the skies
The Chinese People’s Liberation Army has spent years building what Western analysts call an anti access and area denial shield, a mix of surface to air missiles, radars and fifth generation fighters that can complicate any US air campaign near its shores. Reporting on The Chinese People, the Liberation Army and the PLA describes how these investments are meant to blunt US advantages before American pilots even enter a fight. Instead of matching the US plane for plane, Beijing is trying to reshape the geometry of any conflict so that US aircraft must operate from farther away, with fewer bases and under constant threat.
That strategy is now extending beyond static defenses into offensive systems that can reach out across the region. Analysts note that China has dramatically narrowed the technology gap with Russia and the West over the last decade, particularly in precision missiles and advanced aircraft. The goal is no longer just to make US air operations difficult near the mainland, it is to create conditions in which Washington cannot count on air superiority at all in the most contested parts of the Pacific.
Missiles and drones that reach past the first island chain
US airpower in Asia depends on a network of airfields stretching from Japan to Guam, and those fixed points are now under direct threat. Research on cratering effects details how Chinese missile forces can target runways and infrastructure at US air bases within the First Island Chain, potentially grounding aircraft before they can launch. If those bases are suppressed, the Air Force would be forced to operate from more distant locations, reducing sortie rates and stretching tanker fleets that are themselves vulnerable.
At the same time, Beijing is fielding new unmanned systems that can hunt US assets far from the Chinese coast. One example is a so called Type B drone highlighted in analysis of danger to US forces, which is described as an indigenous platform capable of carrying advanced payloads, including directed energy and hypersonic weapons. Another is the Jiutian system, a high altitude unmanned aircraft that can reportedly cruise at a 15,000-meter ceiling that places it beyond many legacy air defense systems, raising questions about whether US interceptors can reliably bring it down.
Stealth fighters and game changing air to air weapons
China’s push into sixth generation fighter technology is another pillar of its challenge to US air dominance. Reports on a new J 36 platform describe a stealth aircraft designed to operate as part of a networked kill web, using advanced sensors and data links to coordinate with drones and missiles. Analysts argue that However, China is moving so quickly in air combat capabilities that the US can no longer assume it will establish air superiority at the outset of a conflict, especially as the J 36 is framed as a potential counter to the B 21 Raider bomber.
That fighter is not emerging in isolation. Earlier reporting on Jan notes that the J 36 is part of an integrated approach to air dominance that also includes new missiles and electronic warfare. One of the most closely watched developments is the PL 17, a very long range air to air missile that analysts say could be a Pacific game changer by threatening high value US assets such as tankers and airborne early warning aircraft. If those support planes are pushed back or destroyed, even the most advanced US fighters would struggle to operate effectively over long distances.
Commanders warn the balance is shifting
Senior US officers are now publicly acknowledging that China could prevent Washington from achieving air superiority in key theaters. A top commander responsible for the region has warned that China now has an air force capable of denying US superiority within the First Island Chain in a potential war. In a separate interview, he explained that in a conflict neither Beijing nor Washington could count on clean dominance, suggesting a future in which both sides operate under constant threat and with limited freedom of action.
Independent assessments echo that concern. A recent analysis shared by The London based defense community concluded that China’s air force now seriously threatens the US and Western counterparts in key areas, citing thousands of long range ground based and air launched weapons. A separate video briefing released in Jan contrasts this with Russia’s failure to secure similar dominance over Ukraine, arguing that Beijing has drawn lessons from that war about the importance of suppressing enemy air defenses and striking logistics early.
US vulnerabilities and the race to adapt
While China accelerates, the US is wrestling with its own modernization problems. The Pentagon’s most ambitious aircraft programme, the F 35, was supposed to be a cornerstone of US air dominance for decades, yet a government watchdog has criticized The Pentagon for 238 day delivery delays that slow the fleet’s growth. At the same time, US airborne early warning aircraft such as the E 3 are aging, with one report noting that Boeing’s E 3 Sentry still relies on a rotating radome that incorporates Westinghouse (now Northrop Grumman) radar, a design that predates many of the missiles now threatening it.
US strategists are not blind to these challenges. The Air Force’s own Air Superiority 2030 Flight Plan warns that air superiority forces will face growing numbers of advanced threats across a wide range of locations and scenarios, and that traditional platform centric approaches will have a less predictable impact on warfare. Politically, The Indo Pacific stands at the forefront of The United States strategy to neutralize China’s growing influence, with new partnerships and basing agreements meant to complicate Beijing’s targeting calculus.
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