Nearly all of the world’s nuclear firepower is concentrated in the hands of just two countries, a reality that shapes every major security crisis and arms control debate. Analysts estimate that out of a global stockpile in the low tens of thousands of warheads, the United States and Russia together hold close to nine in every ten. I see that imbalance as the central fact of the nuclear age, and it is now colliding with the breakdown of the last treaty that tried to keep those arsenals in check.
How many nuclear weapons exist, and who holds them?
To understand who dominates the nuclear landscape, I start with the overall size of the global arsenal. One widely cited set of Key Global Findings from a 2025 Yearbook puts the Global Nuclear Arsenal at a Total of approximately 12,121 warheads, including retired weapons awaiting dismantlement. A separate assessment notes that, Based on new assessments, SIPRI estimated the overall global inventory at 12 405 in Jan. 2024 rather than 12 121 as previously published, highlighting how even counting warheads is an evolving science. Another overview framed the total more simply, stating that TNND reported There are currently nine nations with nuclear weapons, collectively possessing an estimated 12,000 warheads worldwide.
Within that total, the distribution is anything but even. A detailed breakdown of Nuclear Weapons by Country lists Country figures that put Russia at 5,459 warheads and the United States at 5,177, with China on 600, France on 290 and the United Kingdom on 225. A separate visual snapshot of who holds the world’s deadliest arsenal notes that Russia tops the chart with 4,380 nuclear warheads, while The United States follows with a slightly smaller but still massive stockpile, underlining that the exact figures can vary by methodology but the hierarchy does not. When I compare those national totals to the global estimates of around 12,000 to 12 405 warheads, it is clear that Moscow and Washington together control close to 90 percent of the world’s nuclear weapons.
The nine nuclear-armed states, from superpowers to regional rivals
Although two countries dominate the numbers, seven other states also sit inside the nuclear club, each with its own strategic logic. The same Who owns the world’s nuclear weapons overview stresses that, Despite reductions since the Cold War, all nine nuclear-armed states are modernizing or increasing their stockpiles. Alongside Russia and the United States, the list includes China, France, the United Kingdom, India, Pakistan, Israel and North Korea. A separate country ranking of Russia, the United States and China confirms that these three sit at the top of the table, with France and the United Kingdom forming a second tier of established nuclear powers.
Below that, the regional dynamics become even more volatile. India and Pakistan, both highlighted in the Yearbook discussion of India, Pakistan, North Korea, have built arsenals that are smaller in absolute terms but central to their rivalry over Kashmir and their broader security doctrines. Israel maintains deliberate ambiguity about its weapons, while North Korea has staked its regime survival on a growing, if still limited, nuclear force. A concise statistical overview of the Number of nuclear warheads worldwide in 2025 underlines that, for these states, nuclear weapons are framed explicitly as a way of deterring stronger adversaries. That logic helps explain why, even as the superpowers talk about arms control, the club of nine has not shrunk.
Why Russia and the United States still dominate the nuclear balance
The near duopoly at the heart of the nuclear order is not an accident of recent politics, it is the legacy of a decades long arms race. A detailed status of world nuclear forces notes that, Despite progress in reducing nuclear weapon arsenals since the Cold War, the world’s combined inventory remains in the low tens of thousands and several states are increasing their nuclear stockpiles. Another analysis of Background trends points out that, On February 5, 2026, decades of legally binding limits on global nuclear weapons stockpiles will come to an end after a long decline from the 1980s to roughly 12,000 today. When I set those long term curves against the current country breakdowns, it is clear that most of the reductions since the Cold War have come from the United States and Russia cutting from much higher peaks, not from other states catching up.
Even now, the two nuclear superpowers sit in a category of their own. A focused ranking of Nuclear Weapons by lists Russia at 5,459 and the United States at 5,177, while China, France and the United Kingdom trail far behind on 600, 290 and 225 respectively. A separate snapshot of who holds the world’s deadliest arsenal notes that Earth is still dominated by those two states, with Russia alone holding 4,380 warheads and smaller nuclear powers such as North Korea estimated to have 90 warheads. When I compare those figures to the global totals of 12,000, 12 121 or 12 405, the conclusion is unavoidable: the United States and Russia together control nearly 90 percent of the world’s nuclear weapons, and no other country is remotely close to their scale.
A global arsenal that is shrinking, then growing again
For a time, the story of nuclear weapons was one of steady decline, but that trend is now reversing. A detailed Cold War era overview notes that global arsenals have fallen dramatically from their peaks, yet several states are now increasing their nuclear stockpiles again. The same pattern appears in the status of world nuclear forces, which tracks how reductions have slowed as modernization programs accelerate. A statistical overview of the Number of nuclear warheads worldwide in 2025 reinforces that the total has plateaued after years of decline, even as retired warheads continue to be dismantled.
Recent assessments suggest that the direction of travel is now upward, not downward. One press release notes that, Based on new assessments, Jan 2024 inventories were adjusted upward to 12 405, and warns that nuclear risks grow as a new arms race looms toward the turn of the decade. A concise summary of the SIPRI Yearbook underlines that the Global Nuclear Arsenal is no longer shrinking in a straightforward way. When I set those findings alongside the country rankings and modernization programs, the picture that emerges is of a world where the total number of warheads is edging up again, even as the bulk of them remain in American and Russian hands.
The end of New START and the search for new guardrails
All of this is happening just as the last major treaty constraining the two largest arsenals is about to lapse. A detailed analysis by Georgia Cole explains that, On 4 February 2026, the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, known as New START, is due to expire, removing the last legally binding limits on U.S. and Russian strategic nuclear forces. A companion piece on the looming end of New START notes in its On February background that the treaty helped bring global stockpiles down from Cold War highs in the 1980s to roughly 12,000 today. Without it, the two countries that already control nearly 90 percent of the world’s nuclear weapons will face no treaty based caps on how many strategic warheads they can deploy.
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