Across the western United States, what should be the deep heart of winter looks and feels unsettlingly like spring. From California’s mountains to Colorado’s high country, record warmth and vanishing snow are turning a once-in-a-generation pattern into a preview of a new normal that scientists have warned about for years. The question is no longer whether this is a fluke, but how communities will adapt if winters like this become the rule instead of the exception.
Instead of building a protective snowpack, storms have delivered rain, thin slush, or nothing at all, leaving bare hillsides where ski runs and reservoirs alike depend on cold. Researchers tracking these shifts say the current season is a stark demonstration of how a warming climate can hollow out winter from the inside, even when storms still arrive.
Records fall as winter warmth grips the West
What stands out this season is not just the lack of snow, but the intensity and reach of the warmth that is replacing it. Climate monitors report that in the Western states, 9 out of 11 just logged their warmest or near warmest early winter on record, a pattern tied to Favored Large Scale that have steered mild Pacific air over the region. In practical terms, that means days that feel like late March instead of mid January, and nights that never get cold enough to lock in snow that does fall.
Scientists tracking long term trends say this is exactly what a hotter planet looks like in winter. One expert notes that the planet’s temperature is already 1.2 degrees Celsius warmer than its pre 20th century baseline, which nudges more winter precipitation to fall as rain instead of snow. Meteorologists tracking this season’s anomalies describe Records Are Being across the region, with some locations seeing January highs in the 50s and even low 60s, including readings of 52 degrees that would be unremarkable in spring but are jarring in midwinter.
Snow drought from California to Colorado
The warmth is not arriving in a vacuum, it is eroding the very snowpack that the West counts on as its frozen reservoir. In the Sierra Nevada, an extraordinarily warm stretch has left the snowpack at just 59% of average for this point in the season, even though storms have brought moisture. State hydrologists who rely on a detailed snow survey at Phillips Station, overseen by the Department of Water, have watched early season gains melt away after a dry and warm January, cutting into a snowpack that typically supplies about a third of California’s water.
Farther inland, the pattern is similar, only starker. Observers in the Colorado Rockies report Observing stations showing record to near record low snow levels, the weakest since some of those gauges were installed. One climatologist summed up the situation by saying that when December feels like March, the region is effectively in a snow drought. A broader analysis of the Very wet but very warm storms that have hit the West shows that many mountain basins are running substantial snowpack deficits, even where precipitation totals look healthy on paper.
Economic pain for ski towns and outdoor businesses
The first to feel the financial sting of a missing winter are the communities that sell it. In Colorado, By Kyla Pearce reports that the state’s lack of snow pack is already hurting the outdoor industry, from ski schools to gear shops. At The Scenic Gondola at Keystone Ski Resort, the cable cars still ferry skiers and snowboarders up the mountain, but thin coverage and closed runs mean fewer lift tickets sold and shorter stays in nearby hotels. One climate scientist, Schumacher, notes that There is not really anywhere in Colorado that is doing well this season, and warns that repeated poor snow years could affect long term economic prospects for mountain towns built around winter sports.
The strain extends beyond lift lines. Across the West, the snowpack is the main water supply, and Tens of millions of people and countless farms rely on its slow melt to fill rivers and reservoirs. Reporter SIEGLER describes ski slopes so thin and rocky that resorts cannot safely open terrain, which means seasonal workers lose hours and local restaurants see empty tables. A landmark analysis of how shrinking snow affects mountain economies and ecosystems, titled Snowless Winters Are, warned years ago that the consequences would go far beyond closed ski resorts, and this winter is bearing that out in real time.
Water security and the specter of summer drought
For water managers, the real crisis may not show up until the heat of summer, when the missing snow would normally be melting into rivers. Hydrologists point out that the Colorado River basin depends on high elevation snow to recharge a system already strained by long term aridification. Climate experts tracking the current snow drought warn that even where storms have been frequent, the combination of warmth and rain instead of snow means less stored water for later in the year. In Utah, forecasters asking Why winter has been so lackluster around Salt Lake City point to a persistent high pressure ridge, summarized as Blame the block over the Bering Strait, that has diverted cold storms away for weeks at a time.
State officials in Colorado are already warning that today’s bare slopes could translate into tomorrow’s water restrictions. Analysts note that the same lack of snow pack hurting the outdoor industry could spell drought conditions this summer, as described in reporting for the state. In Arizona, the picture is equally stark. From PHOENIX, reporters describe how Arizona and the Southwest, the winter of 2025–2026 is coming up with a historic snowfall deficit, leaving forecasters to warn that the region could definitely use a surplus of late season storms just to break even.
From freak season to future baseline
What makes this winter especially sobering is how closely it matches projections of a warming climate’s impact on cold season weather. Climatologists tracking national data note that Published January analyses show January heat records now outpacing cold records, a clear signal of a rapidly warming climate. Much of the country may still see occasional monster winter storms, but the background trend is toward milder averages and shorter snow seasons. In the West, that means more winters where rain falls on snow, accelerating melt and increasing the risk of midwinter flooding followed by summer shortages.
For the ski industry, this season is a case study in what adaptation will require. Experts who study mountain recreation say that as the climate warms, this winter offers a glimpse at the future of skiing, with lower elevation resorts relying more heavily on snowmaking and higher elevation areas becoming the last reliable refuges for natural snow. Long term research on mountain regions, including the work summarized in Snowless Winters Are, suggests that communities will need to diversify beyond snow based tourism, rethink water storage, and prepare for more wildfire friendly summers that follow dry winters. As I look across the data from Jan and the reports from Sara Tonks, Jan, and others, it is hard to escape the conclusion that winter has not so much disappeared as shifted, arriving later, leaving earlier, and increasingly failing to deliver the deep, reliable snow that once defined life in the West.
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