The latest Arctic blast has not only buried the Mid-Atlantic in snow, it has pushed the country’s largest power market into a high-stakes experiment in how to keep the lights on. Facing record-breaking demand and constrained fuel supplies, PJM Interconnection has moved to lock in gas-fired electricity days in advance instead of relying on its usual just-in-time market signals. I see that shift as a revealing stress test for a grid that is being asked to juggle extreme weather, aging infrastructure, and a fast-changing generation mix all at once.
The cold snap, driven by Winter Storm Fern, has already triggered emergency orders from federal regulators, precautionary alerts from PJM, and a scramble by generators to secure natural gas. The decisions PJM is making in this storm, from pre-booking gas-fired output to recalling maintenance outages, will shape how grid operators across the country think about reliability in a climate where “once in a decade” cold is arriving far more often.
The cold snap that pushed PJM to the edge
The starting point for PJM’s unusual move is the sheer severity of the weather. Winter Storm Fern has plunged large swaths of the eastern United States into subfreezing temperatures and what federal officials have described as life-threatening wind chills, conditions that sharply increase heating demand and strain electricity systems that are already running hard. As the storm swept across PJM’s 13-state footprint, the operator warned that peak demand was expected to surpass 130,000 m for seven consecutive days, an extraordinary run of high load that leaves little room for error.
Those numbers are not abstract. In Philadelphia, for example, officials kept a snow emergency in place even after the storm’s light, powdery snow produced relatively few local outages, warning that frigid temperatures would persist and continue to test the Power grid. Across the broader region, snow and ice have complicated fuel deliveries and access to infrastructure, while the bitter cold has driven up both electricity and natural gas prices. In that context, PJM’s decision to intervene more directly in how generators line up fuel looks less like an overreaction and more like a response to a system running at its limits.
From price signals to pre-booked gas-fired power
Under normal conditions, PJM relies on competitive markets and short-term price signals to ensure that generators procure fuel and show up when needed. This time, PJM Interconnection has taken what one market summary described as the unusual step of Locks In Gas fired power purchases through the cold spell, effectively guaranteeing that certain gas plants will run and have fuel on hand. That move shifts some risk from plant owners to the grid operator, but it also gives PJM more certainty that capacity it is counting on will actually be available when temperatures plunge overnight.
Reports by By Irina Slav indicate that PJM Interconnection has committed to buy electricity from gas-fired power plants until the end of the month, a preemptive strategy to By Irina Slav secure output before fuel markets tighten further. Another account, also attributed to Irina Slav, notes that Cold Weather Forces PJM to Preemptively Secure Gas Fired Electricity as pipelines in regional production hubs face constraints. In my view, that combination of early commitments and fuel-specific focus reflects a hard lesson from past cold snaps, when gas plants that looked firm on paper failed to deliver because they could not get fuel at the critical hour.
Gas supply strains and surging prices
Locking in gas-fired power is only meaningful if the fuel itself can be secured, and here the picture is complicated. Takeaways by Bloomberg AI note that PJM Interconnection LLC is pushing power plants to secure natural gas supplies through the week as extreme cold lifts demand and drives prices to the highest levels since 2022, a trend that has been highlighted in Takeaways by Bloomberg AI. When gas prices spike, generators that did not hedge early can find themselves squeezed between fuel costs and power prices, which is precisely the scenario PJM is trying to avoid by intervening ahead of time.
At the same time, the broader gas and power system is under visible stress. Reporting on power plant outages in the Eastern United States notes that the demand spike began late Saturday night, as Winter Storm Fern swept across parts of the country and PJM saw outages climb while gas deliveries were restricted, a pattern documented in Saturday coverage. In that environment, PJM’s early contracting for gas-fired output is as much about competing effectively for scarce pipeline capacity as it is about dispatching the cheapest megawatt.
Emergency orders and recalled maintenance
The cold snap has not only reshaped PJM’s market behavior, it has triggered formal emergency actions. PJM has issued precautionary alerts and detailed how it is operating through the wide-ranging cold in a Jan. 25 update that referenced an order from the U.S. Department of Energy, a step outlined in an Jan communication. A related notice, Updated Jan. 25 at 5:00 p.m., underscores that PJM continues to operate under that federal framework as the cold persists, as described in a second Updated Jan posting. Those alerts are part of a graduated playbook that lets PJM call on additional resources and ask customers to conserve if conditions worsen.
Behind the scenes, PJM has also issued a Maintenance Outage Recall Informational message, recalling all active generator maintenance outage tickets so that units on planned outages can return to service if possible, a move documented on the Maintenance Outage Recall site. In parallel, the U.S. Department of Energy has stepped in with an emergency order that allows power plants in the PJM region to run without regard to certain air quality or other permit limits through the end of the month, as described by the Environment Digest Blog in a post on PJM Interconnection and the DOE Issues Order To. That kind of waiver is controversial, but in the middle of a cold emergency it reflects a clear prioritization of reliability over short-term emissions limits.
Federal backstop and national grid stress
The emergency order for PJM is part of a broader federal response to Winter Storm Fern. One detailed account notes that the Energy Department issues emergency order for PJM power generation as Winter Storm Fern brings subfreezing temperatures and life-threatening conditions, with the order time stamped at 12:34 PM EST and Updated at 01:39 PM EST. A related analysis of how the winter storm tests the U.S. electric grid notes that PJM said Sunday that peak demand for its 13-state footprint is expected to surpass 130,000 m for seven consecutive days, a figure that appears again in a separate Sunday report. Those numbers help explain why federal officials were willing to relax environmental constraints in the short term.
Crucially, PJM is not alone in facing these pressures. DOE estimates more than 35 G of unused backup generation remains available nationwide, and the same order is expected to help ERCOT with extreme conditions in Texas, as described in a DOE and ERCOT focused summary. Another national overview, By Reuters, notes that Frigid Weather Stresses US Electric Grid as Snow falls on transmission lines and substations, with the piece time stamped at 7:48 a.m., underscoring that the PJM system and elsewhere are all feeling the strain. In that light, PJM’s early gas commitments look less like an isolated experiment and more like one piece of a national scramble to keep a weather-driven crisis from becoming a full-blown reliability disaster.
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