American power is being redefined through barrels, not just battalions. With President Donald Trump openly tying military protection to oil flows and promising to unleash U.S. production alongside a rebuilt Venezuelan sector, Washington is testing whether “energy dominance” can both undercut rivals and stabilize a shattered petrostate. The stakes run from gas prices at home to the balance of power with Russia and China, and to whether the people of Venezuela finally see relief rather than another round of extraction and disappointment.
At the center of this strategy is a simple proposition: if the United States can coordinate its own record output with a rapid revival of Venezuelan fields, it can flood the market enough to squeeze adversaries that depend on high prices while also funding reconstruction in Caracas. Whether that promise holds up depends on geology, infrastructure, and politics as much as on presidential rhetoric.
From battlefield to barrel: how Venezuela became the test case
The new doctrine starts with the decision to treat Venezuela as both a security threat and an energy prize. Earlier this year, U.S. forces carried out a dramatic operation in which Venezuela President Nicolas was captured and flown out of the country, an intervention President Trump later likened to past U.S. campaigns against foreign strongmen. In a separate video, he framed the mission as part of a broader push to reshape the global order through control of oil, with GDF chronicling how the capture of Nicol Maduro was sold to voters as a necessary step to secure American prosperity.
Diplomats have been just as blunt. At the United Nations, the U.S. ambassador said on a Monday that enemies of The US cannot be allowed to control vast oil reserves, insisting that Washington is not occupying a country but preventing hostile powers from weaponizing energy. Energy Secretary interviews have reinforced that logic, with one appearance in Jan featuring an official warning it is a “very real possibility” there will be U.S. military protection for Venezuelan infrastructure, shortly after President Trump vowed that Venezuela now has the military protection of the US.
Trump’s energy dominance doctrine and the historic deal
President Trump has wrapped these moves in a slogan that predates the operation: “energy dominance.” In a White House fact sheet, the administration said that on January 6, 2026, PRESIDENT TRUMP ANNOUNCES, describing a framework that would give U.S. companies access to approximately 30 – 50 million barrels from key fields while pledging investment in local infrastructure. The same document credits President Trump with restoring prosperity, safety and security to the United States through this alignment of foreign policy and fossil fuel leverage.
Supporters see a coherent strategy. One analysis of Inside Trump argues that Donald Trump is using Venezuela to reshape global power, positioning the United States of as the indispensable supplier that can swing prices up or down to reward partners and punish adversaries. Another critical commentary, headlined with the phrase “Drill, baby, drill,” notes that Drill is now more than a campaign chant, describing how President Trump plans to restore oil production in Venezuela through U.S. (the Unite) sector-led investment into the country’s oil reserves, raising fears of further intervention across Latin America.
Can American and Venezuelan barrels really crush enemies?
The administration’s theory of victory depends on volumes and prices. According to Jan research from Rystad Energy, returning Venezuela to its peak production of 3 million barrels per day would require massive capital and time, with the full effect on global markets not expected to be fully realized until 2040. That long horizon complicates any promise of an immediate geopolitical knockout, even if the reserves on paper are enormous. In the meantime, the global oil market is already in oversupply, with The EIA estimating that prices fell 18% in 2025 and forecasting that additional Venezuelan output would mostly displace heavier, sourer grades rather than the lighter, sweeter crude oil produced elsewhere, according to The EIA.
President Trump has been explicit about his target. A UConn economist notes that Trump has talked about ramping up Venezuelan production to bring world oil prices down to $50 per barrel, from the current $61 or so, arguing that such a drop would both help U.S. consumers and strain the budgets of rivals that rely on higher prices. Analysts warn that even if those numbers are hit, the impact on “enemies” will vary: Russia, for example, has already adapted to lower prices and built alternative export routes, while some OPEC members could respond by cutting output to defend revenue. I see a more immediate effect in the way this policy signals to markets that Washington is willing to use both its own shale and foreign fields as tools of statecraft.
The scramble for assets: Russia, China and regional fallout
Energy dominance is not exercised in a vacuum. Russian state-linked company Roszarubezhneft has insisted that all of its Venezuelan assets belong to Russia and that it aims to continue working in the country, even as U.S. officials discuss moves to seize “shadow fleet” tankers that move sanctioned crude. Beijing is also watching closely. A social media post from Anadolu’s English service captures how China China is warning the US over potential military actions against Venezuela, a country where Beijing has invested heavily in oil supplies, and notes that any disruption could impact Beijing‘s interests.
The ripple effects are already visible across the Caribbean basin. A recent analysis of what the U.S.-Venezuela oil shift means for regional markets argues that it is the convergence of geopolitics, capital and project momentum that makes Caribbean Energy Week (CEW) taking place on 30 Marc a focal point, as the region positions itself to capture new refining and logistics business. For Washington, that is part of the appeal: by reorienting crude flows away from Russia and toward U.S.-aligned hubs, the administration hopes to tighten the net around sanctioned actors while giving neighbors a stake in the new order.
Infrastructure reality check and the clean energy twist
Turning strategy into barrels will be harder than the slogans suggest. Reporting by Jennifer, Dlouhy and David describes how the US is pushing for the quickest fixes to boost Venezuelan output, leaning on service giants like CVX, CL=F, BKR and HAL to restart mothballed wells and patch pipelines rather than waiting for full field redevelopments. At the same time, U.S. crude oil production hit record levels in recent years, but tight capital discipline means investors remain wary of pouring money into risky frontier projects, a tension highlighted in coverage that notes how, on the other hand, smaller companies and privately-owned firms with a higher risk appetite may jump at the opportunity to restart operations even as majors see little to spur new investments, according to a report that begins with the phrase On the.
There is also a clean energy subplot that could reshape the economics. Jan analysis from Rystad Energy, cited in a discussion of how U.S. intervention might affect renewables, notes that the ramp up of Venezuelan production would influence the price of key byproducts used in clean power. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), this byproduct now accounts for a growing share of input costs for certain technologies, meaning cheaper oil could paradoxically lower some clean energy prices even as it undercuts others. I read this as a reminder that energy dominance in 2026 is not just about crude exports but about how fossil and renewable markets intertwine.
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