Gasoline engines are not going quietly. Even as electric vehicles grab headlines and incentives, the world’s largest auto supplier is betting that most cars on American roads in 2035 will still carry some form of combustion engine under the hood. That forecast cuts against the political rhetoric around phaseouts and bans, and it forces a harder look at how quickly the United States can really move away from fossil-fuel driving.
Instead of a clean break, the next decade looks more like a messy overlap in which batteries, hybrids, and liquid fuels coexist. Bosch’s leadership is effectively saying that the combustion era will stretch well into the 2030s in the United States, even if the mix of fuels and drivetrains shifts. I see that as less a defense of the status quo than a blunt assessment of how slowly infrastructure, consumer habits, and industrial capacity actually change.
Bosch’s 2035 bet: engines still rule the road
At CES, Bosch’s North American leadership laid out a future in which the typical American vehicle in 2035 still has pistons moving inside an engine block, even if the fuel and the supporting hardware look different from today’s. The company’s North American president, identified in the reporting as Jan, framed the outlook in simple terms: up through 2035, there will still be a lot of engines in the United States, even if that is not the case elsewhere in the world. That is a striking stance from a supplier that also sells batteries, power electronics, and software, and it signals that Bosch does not expect a rapid, universal flip to pure battery power in this market.
Jan’s comments were not a nostalgic plea for gasoline so much as a market call on what American buyers and regulators are likely to accept. Bosch continues to invest heavily in electrified powertrains, but its executives are clear that they see a long tail for combustion in North America. In their view, the United States will remain an outlier compared with regions that are pushing harder on outright bans, which is why Jan stressed that the engine-heavy future he described applies to the United States and “not elsewhere in the world” when he spoke at CES.
The 70% combustion share behind Bosch’s forecast
Behind the headline prediction sits a specific number that reveals how Bosch is thinking about the mix of vehicles on American roads. Jan’s colleague, identified as Thomas, pointed to a figure of 70% and explained that this share could refer to any vehicle that still has an engine, whether it is a conventional gasoline model, a hybrid, or a plug-in hybrid. In other words, Bosch expects fully electric vehicles to make up only about 30 percent of the American fleet by 2035, with the rest still relying on combustion in some form.
That breakdown matters because it shows how Bosch is grouping hybrids and plug-in hybrids together with traditional gasoline cars when it talks about “engines.” Thomas, speaking for Bosch, is not drawing a sharp line between a Toyota RAV4 Hybrid and a Chevrolet Silverado that burns only gasoline. Both count toward that 70% share because both still depend on an engine for propulsion. From my perspective, that framing underscores how slowly the company expects the fully electric share to grow in North America, even as it acknowledges that many of those engine-equipped vehicles will be far more efficient than today’s fleet.
Why the world’s largest supplier is hedging its EV bets
Bosch is not a niche player making a contrarian call for attention. It is described in the reporting as the world’s largest auto supplier, which means its forecast reflects a broad view across automakers, regions, and technologies. When Jan and Thomas talk about engines remaining dominant, they are speaking from a vantage point that spans everything from fuel injectors to inverters. I read their stance as a hedge: Bosch is pouring money into electrification, but it is not willing to abandon the combustion side of its business in a market where it expects engines to remain the majority for at least another decade.
That dual-track strategy shows up in how Bosch talks about its portfolio. The company is investing in batteries and electric drive units while also refining combustion systems that can run on lower-carbon fuels and work inside hybrids. The message is that Bosch expects to sell a lot of electric components and a lot of engine hardware at the same time, especially in North America. When Jan said that “up through 2035, there will still be a lot of engines in the United States,” as captured in the CES reporting on what They expect, he was effectively justifying why Bosch continues to back both sides of the drivetrain divide.
North America as an outlier in the global transition
Jan’s insistence that the engine-heavy future he described applies to the United States but “not elsewhere in the world” hints at a widening gap between North America and other major auto markets. In Europe and parts of Asia, regulators are pushing more aggressive timelines for phasing out new combustion-only cars, and charging infrastructure is expanding faster. Bosch’s executives are signaling that they see those regions moving more decisively toward full electrification, while the United States lags behind in both policy and infrastructure.
That divergence shapes how suppliers allocate capital. If Bosch expects Europe and China to demand more battery-electric systems while North America keeps buying hybrids and gasoline trucks, it will tailor its factories and R&D accordingly. From my vantage point, that creates a risk that American consumers end up with older technology for longer, especially if global platforms are optimized for markets that move faster on EVs. Jan’s contrast between the United States and “elsewhere in the world” at CES, captured in the same reporting that described how Bosch continues to back engines, is a reminder that the American transition is not happening in a vacuum.
Automakers push back on 2035 combustion bans
Bosch’s forecast also lines up with how many automakers are talking about proposed bans on new combustion-engine sales. Over the summer, Automakers threw down a clear marker that a blanket 2035 engine ban is, in their words, “no longer feasible” under current conditions. Their argument is that forcing a hard cutoff would strain supply chains, overwhelm charging networks, and weaken the car business at a time when companies are already investing heavily in electrification. That resistance helps explain why a supplier like Bosch feels comfortable predicting a long life for engines in the United States.
When Automakers warn that a 2035 ban would “weaken the car business,” they are not just defending legacy products, they are highlighting the financial and logistical risks of moving too fast. From my perspective, their pushback and Bosch’s 70% engine share are two sides of the same coin. Both suggest that the industry expects a slower, more incremental transition in North America, with hybrids and plug-in hybrids acting as a bridge. The reporting that Automakers see a full ban as “no longer feasible” and likely to weaken the car business reinforces the idea that policymakers will face intense pressure to soften or delay hard deadlines.
Hybrids, plug-in hybrids, and the new definition of “gas car”
One subtle but important part of Bosch’s framing is how it blurs the line between traditional gasoline cars and electrified models that still use engines. When Thomas said that the 70% figure could refer to any vehicle with an engine, he was explicitly including hybrids and plug-in hybrids in that bucket. That means a 2035 America dominated by “gas engines” might look very different from today’s mix of V6 sedans and V8 pickups, even if combustion remains central. A Toyota Prius, a Ford F-150 PowerBoost hybrid, and a Jeep Wrangler 4xe plug-in hybrid all count toward that 70% because they still rely on an engine, even as electric motors shoulder more of the work.
I see that as a redefinition of what a “gas car” is. In Bosch’s 2035 scenario, many of those engine-equipped vehicles could be sipping fuel rather than guzzling it, thanks to downsized engines, electric assistance, and smarter controls. That does not eliminate tailpipe emissions, but it does change the emissions profile of the fleet compared with today. By grouping all engine-based vehicles together, Bosch is emphasizing that the key dividing line in its forecast is not between gasoline and electricity, but between vehicles that can move without burning fuel at all and those that cannot. That nuance is easy to miss when people hear that “most cars” will still have engines.
Infrastructure, policy, and the limits of EV adoption
Behind Bosch’s numbers and Automakers’ resistance to bans lies a shared concern about infrastructure and policy support. To get beyond that 30 percent EV share by 2035, the United States would need a dense, reliable charging network that reaches far beyond coastal cities and affluent suburbs. It would also need sustained incentives, grid upgrades, and clear regulatory signals that give both consumers and manufacturers confidence to commit. The fact that the world’s largest supplier and major Automakers are publicly skeptical about a full phaseout suggests they do not see those conditions materializing fast enough.
From my perspective, that skepticism is not purely self-serving. It reflects the reality that many American drivers live in apartments without dedicated parking, drive long distances in extreme temperatures, or rely on used vehicles where upfront price matters more than fuel savings. In that context, a 2035 landscape dominated by hybrids and plug-in hybrids looks like a compromise between climate goals and practical constraints. Bosch’s expectation that engines will remain prevalent in the United States, contrasted with its view that this will not be the case elsewhere, underscores how infrastructure gaps and policy uncertainty are shaping the pace of change on American roads.
What Bosch’s call means for drivers and climate goals
If Bosch is right and roughly 70% of American vehicles on the road in 2035 still have engines, the implications for climate policy are significant. It would mean that tailpipe emissions remain a major source of greenhouse gases well into the 2030s, even if per-vehicle emissions fall as hybrids spread. For drivers, it suggests that buying a new gasoline or hybrid vehicle in the early 2030s will not make them an outlier, but part of the mainstream. That could ease anxiety about resale values and service support, but it also risks locking in emissions for another decade or more.
I see a tension here between realistic planning and ambition. Bosch and Automakers are effectively telling policymakers that a slower transition is the only viable path under current conditions. If governments accept that, they may focus more on tightening efficiency standards for engine-equipped vehicles and promoting hybrids, rather than pushing aggressively for full electrification. If they reject it, they will need to confront the industry’s warnings that a hard 2035 ban could “weaken the car business” and disrupt supply chains. Either way, the forecast that most American cars will still have engines in 2035 is not just a prediction about technology, it is a challenge to the political will behind the energy transition.
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