ChatGPT is no longer adding users at the breakneck pace that defined its first years, and the slowdown is starting to reshape the competitive map of consumer AI. Growth is still positive, but the latest data suggests the chatbot that kicked off the generative AI boom is settling into a more mature, contested market rather than an unstoppable viral phenomenon.
That shift matters far beyond one product’s chart of monthly active users. Slower expansion affects how much data OpenAI can learn from, how much revenue it can pull in, and how much leverage it has against rivals that are racing to catch up with their own chatbots and AI assistants.
The data behind ChatGPT’s cooling growth curve
The clearest signal that ChatGPT’s rise is moderating comes from market trackers that watch app installs, web traffic, and user behavior. I see a consistent pattern in those numbers: usage is still large in absolute terms, but the slope of the curve is flattening as the product moves from novelty to infrastructure. Research firm Sensor Tower, cited in recent coverage, describes a tapering in new sign-ups and engagement that marks a shift from explosive adoption to incremental gains, particularly in mature markets where early adopters are already onboard.
That same research notes that the slowdown is not evenly distributed, with some regions and platforms holding up better than others, but the overall picture is one of decelerating momentum. The Sensor Tower analysis, referenced in a report on how ChatGPT’s user growth has slowed, underscores that the firm is drawing on app store and web traffic data rather than anecdote, which gives the trend more weight for investors and competitors trying to gauge where the AI race stands.
Mobile downloads and engagement are slipping
One of the most concrete indicators of fatigue is on mobile, where ChatGPT’s app once dominated download charts. Analytics from Apptopia show that by mid October the app was on track to post a month-over-month decline in new installs, with growth in downloads and daily usage both easing. The firm’s forecast that October would end down exactly 8.1% in a key metric of mobile performance is a sharp contrast with the double digit surges that defined ChatGPT’s first year on phones.
That cooling is not just about fewer people trying the app for the first time, it is also about existing users spending less time inside it. Separate reporting on the United States market notes that ChatGPT sees fall in app downloads and time spent on the mobile app, with engagement slipping as the novelty wears off and users experiment with alternatives. In the U.S., where smartphone penetration is high and early adopters moved quickly, that drop in time spent suggests OpenAI is facing a real challenge in maintaining its growth trajectory on the device that matters most for everyday consumer habits.
From runaway leader to contested incumbent
When ChatGPT arrived, it jolted Silicon Valley and set off a scramble among tech giants to respond. For a time, OpenAI’s chatbot looked unassailable, with a head start in both mindshare and user numbers. Now, as growth slows, that lead is starting to look less like a permanent moat and more like an early advantage that rivals can chip away at. The shift is especially visible in how quickly competitors have rolled out their own large language models and integrated them into search, productivity suites, and mobile operating systems.
Reporting on the broader AI race notes that OpenAI’s chatbot jolted Silicon Valley when it debuted, but that ChatGPT’s user growth is slowing while Google’s Gemini is gaining ground. That dynamic turns the story from one of a single breakout app into a more familiar platform contest, where incumbents with distribution advantages, like Google on Android and in Chrome, can gradually erode a first mover’s dominance even if they arrived later to the party.
Competition from Google Gemini and other challengers
As growth cools, the competitive pressure on ChatGPT is intensifying, and Google Gemini is at the center of that shift. Gemini is being woven into products that hundreds of millions of people already use, from search results to Gmail and Docs, which gives it a built in funnel that ChatGPT’s standalone app and website cannot easily match. Over time, that integration can turn casual users into regulars without requiring them to download a new app or create a separate account.
One report on e-commerce traffic notes that while ChatGPT referrals to retailers’ apps increased 28 percent year over year, the same analysis argues that ChatGPT’s user growth has slowed even as Over time, that increased pace of adoption could help Gemini narrow the gap. Another analysis points out that Disappointments with recent updates and the emergence of alternatives such as Google Gemini are fueling user churn, suggesting that competition is not just theoretical but already pulling some people away from ChatGPT toward newer or more tightly integrated tools.
User fatigue, product changes, and the limits of novelty
Any viral product eventually runs into the ceiling of human attention, and ChatGPT is no exception. After an initial wave of experimentation, many users settle into a narrower set of use cases or drift away entirely if the tool does not keep surprising them. I see that pattern in the way engagement metrics are softening even as the overall user base remains large. The early magic of typing anything into a blank box and getting a fluent answer has become more routine, and that routine is harder to monetize and grow.
Product decisions can accelerate or slow that fatigue. Some long time users have complained that recent updates have made responses feel more constrained or less creative, and those perceptions matter even if the underlying model is technically stronger. Reporting from one European tech outlet bluntly states that Disappointments with recent updates and the emergence of alternatives such as Google Gemini are fueling user churn. That combination of shifting expectations and rising competition makes it harder for OpenAI to rely on novelty alone to keep people coming back.
OpenAI’s “code red” response to the slowdown
Inside OpenAI, the plateau in growth and the rise of credible rivals appear to have triggered a sense of urgency. The company has reportedly framed the situation as a “code red,” a phrase that signals internal recognition that the status quo is not enough to maintain leadership. For a startup that became a household name almost overnight, that is a notable change in tone, and it suggests executives are worried that the window to cement ChatGPT as the default AI assistant is narrowing.
According to one account, HUNT VALLEY, Md. (TNND) reported that OpenAI declared a “code red” on Monday to improve ChatGPT, citing a memo that described plans to accelerate product work in the meantime, according to The Wall Street Journal. The report notes that The Wall Street Journal was the original source of the memo and that the internal message came from leadership, underscoring how seriously the company is taking the combination of slowing growth and intensifying competition.
Infrastructure strain and the cost of staying ahead
Even as user growth slows, the computational demands of running ChatGPT at scale are enormous, and that reality is shaping OpenAI’s strategy. Serving billions of prompts, training new models, and powering features like image and video generation all require vast amounts of electricity and specialized hardware. That means OpenAI’s ability to keep improving the product is tied not just to user numbers but to its capacity to secure enough chips and power to run ever larger models.
One recent report highlights just how heavy that load has become, noting that Sora 2 and ChatGPT are consuming so much power that Open AI just did another 10 gigawatt deal, with Sam Altman personally involved in the push to secure more capacity. That kind of infrastructure commitment locks in high fixed costs, which in turn raises the stakes of any slowdown in user or revenue growth. If ChatGPT’s expansion plateaus while its energy and hardware bills keep climbing, OpenAI will face more pressure to squeeze value out of each user through subscriptions, enterprise deals, or deeper integration into partner platforms.
Where slowing growth still hides pockets of strength
It would be a mistake to read the slowdown as a collapse. In several niches, ChatGPT is still expanding its footprint, particularly in commerce and productivity workflows. Retailers, for example, are seeing more traffic from AI assisted shopping queries, where users ask the chatbot for product recommendations and then click through to buy. That behavior can deepen even if the total number of users grows more slowly, because each user becomes more valuable to merchants and advertisers.
Data on e-commerce referrals shows that ChatGPT referrals to retailers’ apps increased 28 percent year over year, and that active users for some AI powered shopping tools are up 170 percent, even as overall user growth for the chatbot itself has moderated. The same report that notes active users are up 170% for certain retail integrations also points out that the new data indicates a divergence between raw user counts and the intensity of use in specific verticals. That split suggests ChatGPT may be evolving from a general curiosity into a more targeted tool that powers particular tasks, from shopping to coding, even if it no longer adds new users at the same explosive rate.
What a maturing ChatGPT means for the AI race
As ChatGPT’s growth slows, the narrative around generative AI is shifting from a single breakout app to a broader ecosystem of competing assistants, embedded features, and specialized tools. For users, that could be a positive development, since it encourages companies to differentiate on quality, safety, and integration rather than simply chasing raw sign-up numbers. For OpenAI, it means the era of easy wins is over, and the company must now prove that it can innovate, retain users, and monetize at scale in a crowded field.
The Sensor Tower research that first flagged the slowdown, cited in coverage of how Sensor Tower sees ChatGPT’s user growth tapering, frames the moment as a transition from hypergrowth to a more sustainable, if less spectacular, phase. In that phase, the winners will likely be the companies that can pair strong models with compelling products, reliable infrastructure, and clear business models. ChatGPT still has a formidable head start, but the data now shows that its dominance is no longer guaranteed, and that the AI race it started is very much still underway.
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