Corporate buyers are dragging their feet on Windows 11, and that hesitation is rippling straight into Dell’s order book. Instead of the usual operating system refresh bump, the PC maker is warning that demand will be subdued as customers cling to familiar Windows 10 setups and delay hardware upgrades.
For a company that has long relied on big refresh cycles to smooth out the PC market’s ups and downs, the message is blunt: without a faster shift to Windows 11, Dell expects its sales to stay largely stuck in neutral even as support deadlines loom and new AI-focused machines arrive.
Windows 10 loyalty is colliding with Dell’s sales reality
The core tension for Dell is simple: enterprises are still loyal to Windows 10, and that loyalty is starving the company of the replacement wave it has been counting on. Instead of rushing to adopt Windows 11, many IT departments are extending the life of existing fleets, which leaves Dell facing a year in which PC revenue is likely to be flat rather than rebounding with a new operating system cycle. Reporting on Dell’s guidance makes clear that the company is bracing for a market where businesses “still aren’t moving to Windows 11 fast enough,” and where that slow migration is directly linked to expectations that sales will be flat as customers stick with Windows 10.
That caution is not just a short term blip, it reflects a broader pattern of organizations treating Windows 10 as a stable, well understood platform they are reluctant to abandon. Analysts note that Windows 11 migration remains slow across corporate buyers, and that Dell is having to adjust its expectations accordingly, including for categories like desktops, laptops, and even newer form factors such as a mini PC, which are not seeing the kind of surge that might offset the drag from older machines staying in service, a trend highlighted in coverage of Windows 11 migration.
Dell’s own forecast shows 2025 is not a breakout year
Inside Dell, executives are signaling that the hoped for Windows 11 uplift is not arriving on schedule. The company has told investors that PC sales are expected to remain flat, even as Microsoft pushes its new operating system and talks up AI-ready hardware. That sober outlook is rooted in what Dell is seeing from its largest customers, where procurement teams are still digesting earlier buying sprees and are wary of committing to another big cycle until they see clearer returns from Windows 11 and AI features.
Commentary on Dell’s latest quarterly update underscores how this caution is shaping the company’s broader strategy, with leadership emphasizing cost control and selective bets rather than banking on a rapid operating system transition to do the heavy lifting. Coverage of Dell’s financial guidance notes that the company has effectively written off 2025 as a breakout year for Windows 11 driven demand, and that its PC business is being managed on the assumption that unit volumes will be broadly unchanged, a stance reflected in analysis of Dell’s PC outlook.
Windows 11 is lagging behind its predecessor
Part of the problem for Dell is that Windows 11 simply is not matching the adoption curve of Windows 10. When Windows 10 arrived, many organizations treated it as a necessary consolidation after the fragmentation of earlier versions, and the upgrade pace reflected that urgency. By contrast, Windows 11 is off the pace by roughly 10% to 12% compared with what Microsoft and its partners might have expected based on the previous cycle, a gap that translates directly into fewer new machines being ordered and deployed.
Analysts point out that this shortfall is not entirely surprising, because Windows 10 remains supported for now and many customers see little immediate benefit in moving to Windows 11, especially if it requires hardware changes. Reporting on the current adoption landscape notes that Windows 11 is trailing expectations by that 10% to 12% margin, and that Dell’s own comments underline how unpopular the newer operating system looks relative to the entrenched Windows 10 user base, a dynamic captured in assessments of Windows 11’s slower uptake.
Dell openly concedes 2025 is not the year of Windows 11
In public comments, Dell has gone further than cautious language and has effectively declared that 2025 will not be the year when Windows 11 finally takes over corporate desktops. Executives have acknowledged that the transition to the new operating system is slower than the shift to Windows 10, and that as a result PC sales are expected to remain flat rather than benefiting from a classic refresh wave. That is a striking admission from a company that has every incentive to talk up the upgrade story, and it underscores how entrenched Windows 10 has become inside large organizations.
Those remarks also highlight a deeper frustration: Microsoft’s strategy to push Windows 11, including its focus on AI features and stricter hardware baselines, has not yet convinced customers who are comfortable with their current setups. Reporting on Dell’s stance notes that the company “now says that Windows 11’s transition is indeed slower than Windows 10, and PC sales are expected to remain flat,” and that executives have been explicit that 2025 is not shaping up as the long awaited Windows 11 breakout, a view detailed in coverage of how Dell confirms 2025 is not the year of Windows 11.
Transition to Windows 11 is slower than the last cycle
Comparisons with the previous operating system cycle make the current slowdown even clearer. Dell has said directly that the transition to Windows 11 is slower than the transition to Windows 10, which is a problem for a vendor that depends on predictable refresh rhythms to plan manufacturing, inventory, and channel incentives. When Windows 10 rolled out, many organizations moved relatively quickly to standardize, but this time they are taking a more incremental approach, often upgrading only when hardware naturally ages out rather than on a coordinated schedule.
That measured pace is visible in telemetry and in Dell’s own customer conversations, where IT leaders are weighing the cost of new machines against the perceived benefits of Windows 11. Reporting on this trend notes that Dell says the transition to Windows 11 is slower than Windows 10, and that a significant share of the installed base was still on Windows 10 in October, even as Microsoft and its partners were preparing for support deadlines, a pattern described in analysis of how Dell says the transition is slower.
“500 m” capable PCs are still holding back
Perhaps the most striking figure to emerge from Dell’s commentary is the size of the potential upgrade pool that has not yet moved. According to Dell COO Jeffrey Cl, there are about “500 m” PCs that are capable of running Windows 11 but have not been upgraded. That number captures the scale of the opportunity for Microsoft and its hardware partners, but it also highlights the depth of customer hesitation, because these are systems that could make the jump without a hardware refresh and still have not done so.
For Dell, that means a huge installed base is sitting on the sidelines, waiting for a more compelling reason to switch, whether that is a must have application, a security requirement, or a clearer AI productivity story. Reporting on Jeffrey Cl’s remarks notes that he said, “We have about 500 million of them capable of running Windows 11 that haven’t been upgraded,” and that he expects PC sales to be relatively flat next year as a result of this slow conversion of existing devices, a point laid out in coverage of how around 500 million PCs are holding off.
Hardware requirements and user inertia are slowing the shift
Beyond pure preference for Windows 10, there are practical reasons why users and IT departments are not racing to Windows 11. The operating system’s stricter hardware requirements, including demands around newer processors and security features like TPM 2.0, mean that a significant slice of older but still functional PCs cannot upgrade in place. That forces organizations to choose between replacing machines earlier than planned or staying on Windows 10 for as long as possible, and many are opting for the latter, especially in cost sensitive environments such as education and small business.
Commentary on user behavior notes that “There’s also the matter of hardware-related requirements. Many people still don’t have a PC that can run Windows 11,” and that this gap between installed hardware and Microsoft’s baseline is slowing what was already a sluggish process. Dell’s own executives have acknowledged that these constraints, combined with user comfort with Windows 10 and a lack of must have Windows 11 features, are dragging out the transition, a view reflected in analysis that highlights how There and Many users are in no hurry.
Flat PC sales despite a huge upgrade runway
The paradox for Dell is that even with a vast pool of potential upgrades, the near term sales picture is stubbornly flat. According to Dell’s COO, about 500 m additional PCs can transition to Windows 11 without needing a hardware update, which in theory should be a goldmine for upselling services, peripherals, and future hardware. Instead, the company is signaling that PC sales will remain subdued, because customers are content to sit on capable machines and delay both software and hardware changes until they feel more pressure to act.
That disconnect between theoretical demand and actual orders is shaping how Dell talks about the future of the PC market. Executives are increasingly framing growth around new categories like AI PCs and specialized workstations rather than assuming a broad based Windows 11 refresh will lift all boats. Reporting on the company’s outlook notes that, “According to Dell’s COO, about 500 million additional PCs can transition to Windows 11 without needing a hardware update,” yet PC sales remain flat despite Windows 10’s end of life narrative, a contradiction explored in analysis of how PC sales remain flat despite Windows 10 end of life.
Lessons from past shocks and the road ahead for Dell
Dell’s response to this slow Windows 11 cycle is informed by hard won experience from earlier disruptions. The company has previously navigated COVID era supply shocks and tariff swings that forced it to rethink inventory, sourcing, and customer engagement. Those “Lessons from COVID and tariff shocks” are now being applied to what one report describes as an AI induced memory maze, in which customers are intrigued by new capabilities but hesitant to commit budgets until they see clearer payoffs, leaving Dell to balance investment in innovation with discipline on costs.
Executives inside what one account calls Mike D’s tech shop are leaning on that playbook to get through a period when the operating system upgrade story is not doing the usual heavy lifting. Instead of betting everything on a rapid Windows 11 transition, Dell is focusing on targeted growth areas, from AI optimized laptops to data center infrastructure, while accepting that mainstream PC sales may stay flat for longer than hoped. Coverage of the company’s strategy notes that these lessons from COVID and tariffs are central to how Dell is steering through the current environment, as described in reporting that highlights how Lessons from COVID and tariff shocks are shaping its response.
More from MorningOverview